Irish 2000 Guineas Tips 2023: Back an outsider in weak looking renewal
After Chaldean took out the English 2000 Guineas, there was strong word he would attempt to do the Anglo-Irish double at the Curragh. Eventually his handlers decided to swerve the Curragh to be cherry ripe for Royal Ascot and as such a sub standard renewal looks set to take place. Billy Grimshaw thinks this race is crying out for a big priced winner and directs you in the direction of the one to side with...
There have been some brilliant winners of the Irish 2000 Guineas over the years and who knows, we may see another come Saturday afternoon. The suspicion is, however, that this is not an especially classy Classic generation of colts and even with that concession, the cohort lining up here are a few rungs below the very best of 2023. Chaldean is missing, Al Riffa the same and Little Big Bear and Auguste Rodin are now abandoning a mile and aiming elsewhere.
The idea this is not a great crop comes mainly from the juvenile leaders of the form disappointing and the close finish in the English 2000 Guineas. The fact Hi Royal was sent off 150/1 yet came second (and looked the winner a long way) is another stick to beat this lot with and although he is clearly better than his odds that day suggested, and he may well win this race from the front, he hasn't been missed this time by odds compilers. He trails just Royal Scotsman in the betting and they are both just ahead of Paddington, the leading Ballydoyle fancy.
Starting with Royal Scotsman, he probably deserves to be favourite as although he finished behind Hi Royal at Newmarket, he met traffic in running and also was very keen at the start of the race. He is probably the most talented horse in here although the suspicion is he will be better over shorter in time. Paddington is interesting and will be the ride of Ryan Moore, which has seen his odds contract, but there isn't much in his form to suggest he deserves to be sub 5/1. He is regally bred as we expect from a Ballydoyle runner and obviously could take a marked step forward, but I am more keen on the chances of one of his bigger priced stablemates.
Proud And Regal runs for Aidan's son Donnacha in the colours of John Magnier, so obviously is closely connected to Coolmore as a Galileo colt. He could be the class pick as he did only finish behind the former short price ante post favourite for this race Al Riffa in last season's National Stakes, and there was no disgrace in his non staying effort behind quiet Derby fancy Sprewell on seasonal reappearance when beaten favourite. He shaped that day like a drop back in trip would suit and I was toying with backing him win-only for this Classic, while another Ballydoyle entrant Cairo was also on the shortlist ahead of stablemate Age Of Kings and the other entrants.
In the end, however, I am going to take a swing on the 33/1 chance QUAM SHAMAR for Shane Foley and Jessie Harrington. The team are bang in form of late and as I have outlined, there are holes to pick in almost every runner here yet some are priced like victory is out of the question. This Shamadal colt was only raced once as a juvenile and was beaten easily in eleventh; not exactly Classic winning credentials. That day was clearly all about education, however, and on his three year old debut he looked a much more complete performer when landing a mile Dundalk maiden in fine style. The filly in behind Unless has come out and won since and horses further down the placings have run well since, so I am mindful that could work out as a smart bit of form.
Yes it is a leap of faith to back a twice raced Dundalk maiden winner in a Classic, but this to be frank is not a classic Classic. With Paddy Power, Unibet and LiveScoreBet offering four places each-way and insulting odds of 20/1+ for our selection, I am hopeful Foley can race prominently much like the horse did at Dundalk and who knows, he may just kick on again and come home a Classic winner.
