Irish Champion Stakes: Timeform preview, tip and free racecard
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There's a competitive and intriguing edition of the Irish Champion Stakes (15:20) at Leopardstown on Saturday with eight horses set to go to post in the €1.25 million event. Three make the journey from Britain including Nashwa (132) who narrowly heads Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings based on the form she she showed when winning the Falmouth Stakes in July and when runner-up in the Juddmonte International last month.
Nashwa, a dual Group 1 winner last season, made an underwhelming start to this campaign and suffered odds-on defeats at Saint-Cloud and Newcastle. However, she proved better than ever when quickening five lengths clear of her rivals in the Falmouth on a rare start at a mile, showing a fine turn of foot. She wasn't at that level when third in the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood, where she was disadvantaged by being held up in a steadily-run affair, but she ran as well as she ever has at York last time on her first start against the boys, splitting a couple of high-class rivals in Mostahdaf and Paddington. She is clearly in excellent order - as is her yard (has the Hot Trainer Flag) - and she should not be underestimated here.
Alflaila (131), who like Mostahdaf carries the famous blue and white silks of Shadwell, has been supplemented for this event and looks well worth a shot at Group 1 level. He finished last season firmly on the up, producing a high-class effort to complete the hat-trick in the Darley Stakes, and he extended the unbeaten sequence to four on his return in July when getting the better of last year's Champion Stakes third My Prospero in the Sky Bet York Stakes. He didn't strictly need to match his Darley Stakes form to triumph in that steadily-run affair but he showed a pleasing turn of foot to seal matters a shade cosily and he has earned his place in this company.
On the same day that Alflaila scored in the Sky Bet York Stakes, his Owen Burrows-trained stablemate Hukum came out on top in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot. King of Steel (129p) ran well to be third in the King George but he left the impression that a strong gallop on softish ground had placed too much of an emphasis on stamina and he could still have more to offer under less taxing conditions. He had certainly shown plenty of pace when readily brushing aside subsequent Great Voltigeur winner Continuous in a steadily-run King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot and he could prove well suited by the drop back to a mile and a quarter here.
King of Steel announced himself at the top level when running a cracker to finish runner-up in the Derby on his seasonal reappearance and first start for Roger Varian (was withdrawn after playing up in the stalls in the Dante). He was overhauled in the final furlong of the Derby by Auguste Rodin (130) who produced a high-class effort on his first attempt at a mile and a half, seeing things out well to score by half a length with the pair four and three-quarter lengths clear. Auguste Rodin then followed up in the Irish Derby without needing to be at his best, but he ran no sort of race when tailed off in the King George. He bounced back from a flop in the Guineas to win the Derby so it would hardly be surprising if he did something similar back on faster ground here (he's a notably fluent mover).
Auguste Rodin's trainer Aidan O'Brien - who along with Varian has the Hot Trainer Flag - is also represented by Point Lonsdale (123) and Luxembourg (131). Point Lonsdale has some smart form but has had his limitations exposed at the highest level and was used as a pacemaker in the King George. Luxembourg shaped better than the result would suggest in fourth at Ascot as he didn't see the trip out fully in a race that placed the emphasis on stamina. He has three Group 1s to his name, including a half-length defeat of Onesto (130) in this race last season so he is entitled to plenty of respect back down in trip.
Onesto won the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp last season and raised his form a notch when making Luxembourg work hard to land this event 12 months ago. He shaped well when fourth over an inadequate mile in the Prix Jacques le Marois on his belated seasonal reappearance last month, earning the Horse In Focus Flag, and he will prove well suited by stepping back up to a mile and a quarter.
In the absence of Al Riffa, the field is completed by Sprewell (120) who was fourth behind Auguste Rodin and King of Steel in the Derby. He disappointed in the Irish Derby last time, though, and looks up against it in this company, for all the good form of the Jessica Harrington yard is a positive (has the Hot Trainer Flag).
Timeform's Analyst Verdict:
A highly competitive renewal but the one who looks to have been underestimated in the market is NASHWA, who split a pair of high-class performers in the Juddmonte International at York last month. The drop back to 10f should be ideal for King of Steel given how he shaped in the Derby/King George so he has obvious claims, while dual-Derby winner Auguste Rodin has proved he can bounce back from a poor run.
Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings:
132 Nashwa
131 Alflaila
131 Luxembourg
130 Onesto
130 Auguste Rodin
129p King of Steel
123 Point Lonsdale
120 Sprewell
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