Iroquois fair odds: Derby trail starts with a 2-horse race

Certainly the Iroquois Stakes on Saturday at Churchill Downs would be exciting for no other reason than it is the first step on the road to the Kentucky Derby.

But two juveniles who attracted my attention add to the excitement because they each sport classic pedigrees that make them threats not only for this stretch to a one-turn mile but also for bigger prizes down the road, including the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Leading the charge is 8 Risk It, a $500,000 yearling purchase who won his Aug. 19 debut at Saratoga, drawing off to a 4 1/2-length score as the 8-5 favorite. Based on the Brisnet Pace Ratings earned in the race, Risk It maintained his speed throughout the six-furlong contest, earning a 91 Speed Rating, which is best of this group by five points.

The only horse I see as a legitimate threat is Patriot Spirit, who was similarly awesome on debut when winning a seven-furlong contest by six lengths at Colonial Downs on Aug. 25. Patriot Spirit sat just off a solid pace before putting the field away with a devastating middle move en route to an 84 Brisnet Speed Rating.

Many factors will contribute to Risk It being a shorter price. Chief among them are his faster debut number and the connections of Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen and Churchill leading rider Tyler Gaffalione. And I do agree that Risk It is the most likely winner, but he is the better value? Probably not.

With Patriot Spirit, trainer Michael Campbell stays loyal to jockey Jesus Castanon, who certainly is a capable journeyman but not the money magnet someone like Gaffalione is. Ditto that for Flavien Prat, who picks up the mount on Gettysburg Address, whom I view as the underlay of the race. His debut win at Ellis was not fast, and he is certain to attract money considering Brad Cox trains for a partnership of WinStar and Siena Farms.

I plan to bet Patriot Spirit to win and will bet a straight 8-9 exacta if it's paying more than 6-1.