Isaac Cruz vs. Giovanni Cabrera Betting Analysis and Prediction
In the co-main event of the super-fight between Spence Jr. and Crawford, we have a great lightweight matchup between former world title challenger Isaac Cruz and undefeated Giovanni Cabrera.
Read more for the betting analysis of this boxing match, along with the official Cruz vs Cabrera prediction before making your picks this weekend.
Isaac Cruz vs Giovanni Cabrera
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Date & Time: July 29, 2023. 10:30 PM ET
How to Watch: Showtime PPV
Cruz is coming off a KO victory over Eduardo Ramirez last September.
Cabrera last fought over a year ago, and he won a unanimous decision over Gabriel Flores Jr.
Cruz may have lost his title shot against Gervonta Davis at the end of 2021, but he is still one of the brightest stars in the stacked lightweight division. At only 25 years old, Cruz is 24-2-1 with 17 KOs under his belt.
He will be the smaller guy on Saturday night with a height of only 5’4” and a 63” reach, but his pressure and power are very difficult for anybody in the world to handle.
Cabrera is coming into this fight as an undefeated boxer with a professional record of 21-0 with seven KOs. He’s a Southpaw fighter with an unorthodox style of counterpunching and keeping his hands lower than most professional boxers would say they should.
The big advantage Cabrera has is his height and reach this weekend, standing at 5’9” and having a 73” reach.
There are no injuries reported to Showtime Boxing. By the looks of it, we should be in for one of the better boxing matches.
Before the Cruz vs. Cabrera prediction, let’s examine the existing betting lines for this lightweight bout. According to boxing odds, Cruz is closing as the massive -850 betting favorite over the +520 Cabrera.
The fight is favored to not make it to the scorecards with odds at -380. In fact, Cruz is actually favored to win by TKO/KO at -280, which is pretty rare in boxing. Cabrera is +2100 to do the same.
If you look at this fight and break it down technically, Cabrera’s style seems to be the type to dismantle a fighter like Cruz. Cruz likes to throw a lot of power punches that tend to be big, looping hooks, and he likes to headhunt. Cabrera likes to counterpunch, and he has a big reach advantage.
Cabrera’s style is worrisome because he keeps his hands low and doesn’t quite have the elite level of speed where he can get away with that against someone with Cruz’s power and finishing ability.
Boxing predictions can sometimes be tough when you try to overthink the pick and chase the underdog bet. Not many underdogs win in boxing when they are +520. The sport is set up in a way that it’s tough to do.
The official Cruz vs Cabrera prediction is that Cruz knocks out Cabrera in the middle rounds. At first, Cabrera looks like an intriguing underdog to bet on, but the more film of his that is watched proves that he has a lot of holes in his game, and Cruz is just a great hunter.
Early on, Cruz might have some trouble adjusting to the length of Cabrera and might drop a round or two. Cruz’s chances increase as Cabrera often leaves himself vulnerable with his chin up and hands down, risking getting clipped.
The other big advantage that Cruz has is his inside fighting. Cabrera isn’t quite to that level where he will prevent that for all ten rounds and will most likely get chewed up on the inside.
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