Israel Adesanya Wants UFC Submission Win-Are +1600 Odds Worth Betting?
Paying attention to what UFC fighters say in interviews leading up to their fight is sometimes helpful. The interviews can reveal information about training and mindset.
On Saturday, Israel Adesanya (24-2) will defend his middleweight belt against Sean Strickland (27-5). Adesanya is a massive -670 betting odds favorite on the moneyline.
In an interview with Aaron Bronsteter of TSN Sports in Toronto, Adesanya said he’s looking for something he’s never accomplished in his UFC career—a submission victory.
According to official UFC stats, Adesanya averages just 0.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes of fighting. It’s extremely rare.
“I definitely want a submission,” Adesanya said. “It might be this fight. I know he’s going to wrestle. He’d be dumb not to, so I know he’s going to mix it up. He’s going to crotch sniff, that’s what he’s going to do.”
Adesanya doesn’t wrestle offensively (he’s only scored one takedown in his UFC career), so a sub over Strickland could come after Strickland tries to grapple. It’s also possible that Adesanya, known for his elite kickboxing, badly hurts Strickland on the feet and then finishes him on the ground with a sub.
Still, it’s never happened in Adesanya’s career. He has 16 MMA wins by KO/TKO and eight by decision.
FanDuel Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook offer Adesanya by submission with +1600 odds. Those odds have an implied probability of 5.88%.
“I definitely just want to submit a couple of people,” Adesanya added. “I’ve done the Fight of the Night bullsh-t. It’s not for me. I like clean executions. I’ve had great performances, I’ve had shutouts, I’ve had a loss, I’ve had a comeback—great comebacks. I think (I want to) showcase my grappling a little bit more, and just take some limbs, take some breaths away.”
Has Adesanya Ever Attempted a Submission?
He’s never recorded a submission win, but has he tried one?
Adesanya attempted multiple in his 2019 fight with Kelvin Gastelum. Both men were slippery in the fifth round, so Gastelum avoided them with relative ease. Watch below.
Later in 2019, Adesanya described some of his then-recent grappling training in an interview with MMA journalist Luke Thomas.
“I’ve worked with [grappling specialist] Misha Cirkunov,” Adesanya said. “You should feel my Peruvian necktie now. He’s got some stuff on long, rangy guys [like myself]. I had a D’Arce [choke] set up—I was going to hit Kelvin with it in the last 10 seconds [of the fifth round at UFC 236], but then I decided to take his back and punch him.”
A submission victory has been on Adesanya’s mind for at least the past four years. Is UFC 293 in Australia the place where it will finally happen?
It’s worth noting that Strickland has never been submitted in his professional MMA career. Vulnerability to submissions isn’t a glaring hole in his game.
Bottom Line
Without Adesanya’s comments, +1600 wouldn’t appear to be a good bet. But how much stock should you put into his interviews heading into this title defense?
It’s difficult to say, but it’s hard to bet against one of the sport’s greatest fighters when he says he’s motivated to accomplish something.
Adesanya by sub on Saturday is a playable wager, but probably not a value bet.
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
