Jaguars vs. Chiefs SGP Odds, Picks, Predictions Divisional Round: Parlay Picks for Saturday's Opener
The Jacksonville Jaguars are a big road underdog against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in the first Divisional Round game of the weekend. Here are our top Jaguars vs. Chiefs SGP picks based on the best NFL odds.
The first time these two teams met, the Chiefs dominated from start to finish. They jumped out to a 20-0 lead, then led 27-10 late into the fourth quarter. That win came despite the Chiefs losing the turnover battle 3-0.
The Chiefs outgained the Jaguars 486-315, as Patrick Mahomes threw for 331 yards and four touchdowns. Trevor Lawrence was 29-40 for 259 yards and two touchdowns, but both of his scores came after the Jaguars had fallen behind by three touchdowns.
Here are our best Jaguars vs. Chiefs NFL SGP picks (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Jaguars vs. Chiefs SGP Picks Divisional Round
- Chiefs 1st half -6.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Christian Kirk anytime touchdown (+190) ⭐⭐⭐
- Evan Engram 6+ catches (+105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jaguars vs. Chiefs Odds
SGP Predictions for Jaguars vs. Chiefs
Chiefs 1st half -6.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Everyone saw the Jaguars’ terrible first half last week, but many may not realize that was the norm for the Jags this season. In the season finale against the Tennessee Titans, they trailed 13-7 at halftime, and in their 40-34 win over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 15, they trailed 21-7. This trend can be traced all the way back to Week 1 when they trailed 14-3 against the Washington Commanders before taking a 22-14 lead in the fourth quarter.
The Chiefs can jump out to early leads against teams, especially when they're far superior to their opponent. That can be seen by their 20-7 halftime lead over the Jaguars the first time these two teams met. There may be some concern that the Chiefs will come out rusty after the week off, but even if they do, they'll sort that out by the end of the first quarter and get in front by halftime.
Christian Kirk anytime touchdown (+190) ⭐⭐⭐
Christian Kirk is positioned to have a big day on Saturday, but to get his yards at a respectable price, you have to take him Over 79.5. Even for the Jaguars' go-to target on a team expected to be playing from behind, that’s a lot, especially when he failed to hit that number last week, despite his team trailing 27-0 and him catching eight balls on 14 targets.
However, there's a lot of value on Kirk to catch a touchdown pass, just like he's done nine times this year, including the one he had last week against the Los Angeles Chargers. Kirk has stepped up in a huge way for the Jaguars in their two must-win games. He has 14 catches for 177 yards and two touchdowns during that span.
The Chiefs are last in the league in passing touchdowns allowed per game. Kirk is the Jaguars’ leading touchdown receiver this season. At nearly 2-to-1 odds, this is a great addition to the parlay.
Evan Engram 6+ catches (+105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
For our third leg of the parlay, we’re sticking with the Jaguars for a few reasons. First, the Chiefs don’t have very many enticing player props, because the prices are simply too outrageous for anything that should happen. Second, Evan Engram has been an integral part of the Jaguars’ offense for weeks now, and that shouldn’t change on Saturday.
Last week, Engram hauled in seven balls for 93 yards and a touchdown. This was following two lackluster weeks resulting from a strong Titans’ defense and the Jaguars’ blowout win over the Houston Texans. In his three games prior to that, the tight end had 26 grabs for 337 yards and two touchdowns. He has become an integral part of Lawrence’s passing game, and even if he doesn’t rack up a lot of yards against a defense that has allowed 70 or more passing yards to just two tight ends this season, he will see enough targets to haul in at least six catches.
Jaguars vs. Chiefs SGP picks made 01/21/2023 at 8:33 a.m. ET.
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