Jaguars vs. Steelers Prediction, Picks, Odds Today: Will T.J. Watt Get to Trevor Lawrence?

The Jacksonville Jaguars vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers matchup is one featuring a pair of teams that are surging after rough starts to their respective seasons. Jacksonville has won four in a row since starting 1-2, while Pittsburgh shook off an embarrassing loss at home vs. the 49ers and has won four of its last five.

Jaguars vs. Steelers Betting Lines, Start Time, and More

• Spread: Jaguars -2.5
• Moneyline: Jaguars (-142), Steelers (+120)
• Over/Under: 41
• Game time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• Location: Acrisure Stadium
• Channel: CBS

Jaguars vs. Steelers Prediction

Despite a 4-2 record, it’s difficult to take the Steelers seriously going forward this season. After all, they have been outscored by 24 points for the season, which puts them at 23rd in point differential, and their total yards differential is an incredible -660, the second-worst in the NFL, behind only the Broncos.

So, how do they keep winning?

For one, the Steelers are big on winning the close games. In one-possession games — when the margin is eight points or less — Pittsburgh is a perfect 4-0.

The Steelers are also tied for the second-best turnover margin in the league at +6 (Jacksonville is also +6). They are top five in both takeaways (12, tied for fifth) and giveaways (six, tied for fourth).

Another reason is penalties. Pittsburgh is tied with Cincinnati for the fewest penalties in the league with 30 — few mistakes, few penalties.

Beyond that, it’s a mystery when figuring out the Steelers’ success.

They rank 31st in total offense (273.5 YPG) and 30th in total defense (383.5 YPG). They have been held under 25 points in five of their six games.

Quarterback Kenny Pickett continues to be abysmal, ranking 25th among qualified quarterbacks in passer rating (81.3) and 28th in completion percentage (60.9%). The ground game has not helped him either, as Pittsburgh is averaging just 81.3 rush yards per game (28th) and only 3.3 yards per carry (29th).

On the other side of the field, while the Jaguars haven’t been over-the-top impressive, four straight wins are four straight wins. And they have scored 30+ points in consecutive games for the first time this season.

They have wins over two teams that rank in the top four in total defense in the Falcons (third) and Saints (saints), so the Steelers’ defensive unit will probably not scare Jacksonville.

Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been good, but not great, this season. He has thrown for 300 yards once in seven games — 315 in Week 5 at Buffalo — and during Jacksonville’s four-game win streak, Lawrence had five TD passes and only one interception.

The Jaguars’ biggest offensive weapon is probably running back Travis Etienne, who ranks fourth in the league in rushing yards (504). Etienne is on a current streak of three straight games with two rushing touchdowns, the first player in franchise history to have as long of a streak.

He should fare well against a Steelers defense that ranks in the bottom five of the league in rushing yards allowed (142.3 YPG, 28th).

Because of their trips over to Europe at the beginning of this month, this will only be the Jaguars’ third game in an opposing stadium so far. But they have managed to cover the spread in both road games, and if you include the two international games, then Jacksonville is a perfect 4-0 against the spread away from home.

Although none of the spreads have been more than five points, this will be the sixth time in seven games the Steelers will be an underdog.

The Steelers have proven over the last couple of weeks that you bet against them at your own risk. But the Jaguars seem to match up very well against the Steelers, and as long as the number is a field goal or less, taking the road team seems like the logical play here.

Best Bet: Jaguars -2.5 (-108 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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