Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz odds: Betting preview, predictions & tips for the fight

Paul vs Diaz betting tips:

YouTube sensation Jake Paul will bid to return to winning ways when he takes on former UFC star Nate Diaz in Dallas this weekend.

Betting sites make him the odds-on favourite to secure victory against Diaz, who is making his boxing debut at the age of 38.

Paul has made a habit of fighting MMA stars during his fledgling boxing career, having rattled off wins against Ben Askren, Tyron Woodley and Anderson Silva.

However, he tasted defeat for the first time when he lost to Tommy Fury courtesy of a split decision back in February.

That was his first fight against a professional boxer, so Paul has now decided to go back to fighting UFC veterans as he seeks to rebuild his career.

Diaz is a high-profile opponent, having beaten the likes of Conor McGregor, Tony Ferguson and Donald Cerrone during his 18-year MMA career.

He was never exactly renowned for his supreme boxing ability during his career, as he often relied on his jiu-jitsu skills against dangerous opponents, but his awkward southpaw style could make life difficult for Paul.

It promises to be an interesting fight between two relatively inexperienced boxers, and we have explained the reasoning behind our top Paul vs Diaz tips below.

Back over 7.5 rounds in this fight

Paul has won four of his seven previous fights via a knockout and you can find odds of 13/8 at Bet365 on this one going the distance.

However, it is worth noting that those knockouts came against unheralded opponents - including a fellow YouTuber and a former NBA player.

He secured a first-round stoppage against former wrestler Ben Askren in his third fight, but Askren was never known for his boxing prowess.

Paul then beat former UFC welterweight champion Tyron Woodley via a split decision at the end of an eight-round bout in August 2021.

He took his record to 5-0 by knocking out Woodley in the rematch a few months later, and he then beat Silva courtesy of a unanimous decision in October last year.

Paul never really troubled Fury in their showdown in Saudi Arabia in February, and that fight also went to the judges’ scorecards.

It means that three of his last four fights have gone the distance and backing over 7.5 rounds in this upcoming 10-round bout looks appealing.

This could be seen as a must-win fight for Paul, as a second consecutive defeat would damage his credibility.

As such, he may play this one cautiously in the opening stages, as he attempts to come to terms with Diaz’s awkward technique, which is known as the Stockton Slap.

Paul did not look entirely comfortable against Silva, a southpaw, and it may take him a while to adjust to Diaz’s unorthodox approach too - so 7/8 on over 7.5 rounds looks appealing.

Diaz’s durability could see this fight go the distance

Diaz displayed impressive durability during his 19-year MMA career and that has left him with a record of 21 wins and 13 losses from 34 fights.

Only two of those 13 defeats came by knockout - a doctor stoppage against Jorge Masvidal in 2019 and a TKO against Josh Thompson all the way back in 2013, when he was hit with a brutal head kick.

When a fighter is knocked down in the Octagon, his opponent has carte blanche to pounce on him and hammer him into the canvas.

By contrast, if a boxer hits the deck, he is given a 10-count in a bid to recover, which could help Diaz go the distance this weekend. 

He has always boasted a great engine and a granite chin, so he will be able to take a great deal of punishment against Paul.

Yet Diaz is by no means a knockout specialist either. In fact, just five of his 21 wins came by knockout, and his last was in 2013.

Since then, Diaz has won four times - twice by decision and twice by submission - so he is unlikely to stop Paul this weekend.

Paul has a height and reach advantage, and despite his tender age, he is actually the more experienced boxer, so he looks well priced at 16/5 to win on points with UK bookmakers.

Can Paul capitalise on superior stamina in the later rounds?

Another interesting option is to back Paul to win in Rounds 6-10 this weekend at odds of 2/1 with Parimatch.

You can cover both outcomes and still end up in profit if either of them pays off, so it could be a helpful way to hedge your bets.

While Diaz is very rarely knocked down, he has accumulated a lot of scar tissue over the years - a natural by-product of his willingness to eat heavy shots from formidable opponents.

There is a danger that his scar tissue will be opened up if Paul lands some big shots in this fight and the doctor may have to step in, as was the case against Masvidal.

Paul knocked out Woodley in the sixth round of their rematch in December 2021 and he has not stopped anyone before the sixth round since fighting the unheralded Askren.

He is the younger fighter, so his superior stamina could make all the difference as this bout wears on.

For those reasons, a bet on Paul to win in the second half of this fight is a tempting option.

Should you wish to take any of our betting advice on Paul vs Diaz, be sure to check out what free bets are available to claim before placing your stake.

Martin Green spent five years working at William Hill before becoming a freelance writer. He has extensive experience in the online gambling industry, writing informative and factual articles helping online players improve their knowledge. He provides betting tips for The Independent.