Japan vs Sweden predictions: Women’s World Cup tips and odds

Belfast Telegraph

10 August 2023

Japan vs Sweden predictions: Women’s World Cup tips and odds

Our betting expert has three Japan vs Sweden tips for the Women’s World Cup quarter-final at Eden Park, Wellington, on Friday (kick-off, 8.30am BST). Scroll down to see the analysis behind his selections.

Japan vs Sweden betting tips

Japan to win to nil @ 5/2 with Sky Bet
Japan to win, Hinata Miyazawa to score any time and Japan to score 2+ goals @ 9/2 with Sky Bet

Odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

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Japan seek to avenge Tokyo loss

After overcoming the USA on penalties, Sweden will look to continue their fine run at the Women’s World Cup by beating Japan in the quarter-finals on Friday.

With the holders out, many of the remaining teams will fancy their chances of going all the way, including Japan, who have won all four of their matches so far.

Friday’s encounter could be one of the games of the tournament, with Japan in search of their second Women’s World Cup, while Sweden are aiming to reach the final for the second time and perhaps go one better than 2003, when they lost to Germany in the final.

Japan will seek revenge for their Tokyo Olympics quarter-final defeat by Sweden two years ago when they tackle Peter Gerhardsson’s side in the last eight.

They have been the most consistently impressive team of the tournament, breezing through a testing group with ease before dispatching Norway with authority in the last 16.

The 2011 champions have conceded only once so far and racked up an impressive tally of 14 goals that underlines how much more of a cutting edge they now have.

After making serene progress through an easier group, Sweden produced one of the shocks of the tournament in ousting pre-tournament favourites the USA – ranked No 1 in the world – in the round of 16.

They had to dig deep to get through as a combination of last-ditch tackles, alert goalkeeping by Zecira Musovic and the woodwork enabled them to keep the holders at bay for 120 minutes.

Japan vs Sweden tip 1: Japan to win @ 6/5 with Sky Bet

Ikeda’s team playing with verve

Japan will benefit from staying in New Zealand for this clash, making the relatively short hop up the North Island from Wellington to Auckland, while the Swedes must contend with an extra travel day, adjusting to a new time zone and one day less rest.

Despite having one of the more experienced teams in the tournament, Sweden’s starters may be jaded after toiling for 120 minutes in Melbourne, and a gruelling schedule that saw them face the USA on less rest may eventually take its toll on some of the veteran bodies.

Japan have played with a verve and freshness Down Under, and their energy levels could be too much for the Swedes to handle here.

It is also noticeable how much freedom coach Futoshi Ikeda has allowed his players at certain times, eschewing some of the traditional principles of Japan’s possession game to flummox good sides such as Spain and Norway.

They lost a closely fought game despite dominating possession against Sweden in Saitama two years ago, but Ikeda seems likely to set them up to catch Gerhardsson’s side on the counter-attack here.

Japan vs Sweden tip 2: Japan to win to nil @ 5/2 with Sky Bet

Swedes may draw a blank

Both nations have been keeping it tight at the back, each registering three clean sheets apiece so far and conceding just two goals between them.

But only three teams in the competition have registered a lower figure than Japan’s average of 0.73 expected goals against – one of them being Spain, the team they thrashed 4-0.

Overall, the Spanish have created the highest-quality chances in the tournament with an average of over 2.8 per game, but that was limited to just over 1.1 by Japan.

Hence, it could pay to take Ikeda’s squad to shut out a Sweden side that ranks seventh among the quarter-finalists for average expected goals and mustered just three shots on goal against the USA.

Mina Tanaka has been deployed as Japan’s central striker, but Hinata Miyazawa has been on the end of most of their clear-cut chances.

The 23-year-old has been ruthless in front of goal with clinical finishes on her left and right, taking her tally to five goals so far.

The in-form attacker should be taken to score any time in this contest in a boost to bet builders, including Japan to win and Ikeda’s team to notch at least two goals.

Sweden’s average expected goals-against figure is currently greater than the xG they have produced Down Under, and it would be no surprise to see Japan double up.

Japan vs Sweden tip 3: Japan to win, Hinata Miyazawa to score any time and Japan to score 2+ goals @ 9/2 with Sky Bet

Japan vs Sweden odds

Odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Japan team news

Japan have no real injury concerns ahead of their quarter-final clash against Sweden and they only made one substitute in the round-of-16 against Norway so are likely to remain unchanged for this one.

Japan predicted lineups (3-4-3): Yamashita; Takahashi, Kumagai, Minami; Shimizu, Hasegawa, Nagamo, Endo; Fujino, Tanaka, Miyazawa.

Sweden team news

Sweden only have one injury problem ahead of their match with Japan as Filippa Angeldahl looks to shrug off a knock she picked up in extra-time against the USA. Goalkeeping hero Zecira Musovic will hope for another big display.

Sweden predicted lineups (4-2-3-1): Musovic; Bjorn, Ilestedt, Eriksson, Andersson; Bennison, Rubensson; Rytting Kaneryd, Asllani, Rolfo; Blackstenius.