Jazz vs Bucks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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08 January 2024

Jazz vs Bucks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The absence of Damian Lillard will be felt against the Jazz, and although Khris Middleton will be asked to help run the offense more than usual, our NBA picks believe the books have pushed his assist total a tad too high.

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Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks will host Lauri Markkanen and the Utah Jazz at Fiserv Forum on Monday night, and I've taken a close look at the NBA odds to determine the best bet for this matchup.

After Antetokounmpo called out everyone on the team — including the equipment manager — following the Bucks' loss to the Houston Rockets on Saturday, how will they respond against Utah?

This won't be an easy game for Milwaukee, as the Jazz are 7-3 with the ninth-best net rating in the NBA over the last ten games. The Bucks will also be shorthanded on Monday night without guard Damian Lillard, who has already been ruled out for personal reasons.

This means we'll see bigger playmaking roles for Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, but did the sportsbooks overadjust one of their NBA player props in the absence of Lillard? Find out in my free NBA picks for the Jazz vs. Bucks on January 8.

Jazz vs Bucks odds

Jazz vs Bucks predictions

When a team loses its starting point guard, the playmaking duties will shift a bit to some of the other key offensive weapons on the team. In this case, that means Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton. That's not what I'm questioning here, but rather the size of the adjustment made.

Middleton has been trading at a total of 5.5 assists in his most recent games, and with Lillard out, we're now seeing Middleton trade at 7.5 with increased juice on the Over. Two full assists higher without Lillard? It's not like we haven't seen Antetokounmpo and Middleton lead this offense before, and Middleton wasn't trading at a total of 7.5 last season when Jrue Holiday was out of the lineup.

A total of 7.5 isn't a small number by any means. For perspective, Fred VanVleet is trading with a total of 7.5 on Monday against the Miami Heat, and VanVleet is among the league leaders in assists per game at 8.5.

For full transparency, the number I grabbed on this prop was Under 8.5 (-140 at DraftKings), but that's no longer the line being offered. With that said, while they have moved it down to 7.5, the +114 price point for the 7.5 still offers a very similar expected value.

Middleton is projected to drop 7.6 dimes against the Jazz on Monday — allowing us to price the Under 7.5 assists at -106 — but it's trading at +114 at DraftKings. The key to this wager on the 7.5 is the plus money price, so don't hesitate to place this bet as FanDuel and BetRivers have moved the Under 7.5 to minus money.

My best bet: Khris Middleton Under 7.5 assists (+114 at DraftKings)

Jazz vs Bucks same-game parlay

Khris Middleton Under 7.5 assists

Lauri Markkanen Over 1.5 assists

John Collins Over 0.5 threes made

The best price on the individual prop for Middleton is at DraftKings, but I'm going to create the same game parlay with Caesars because DraftKings isn't offering a price on Lauri Markkanen's assists prop, and I want to make sure that bet finds its way into my SGP.

The Milwaukee Bucks are vulnerable to assists from players in the frontcourt, and Markkanen has seen his potential assists climb to 4.5 per game over his last eight outings compared to the 3.2 he was averaging before.

I'm also including John Collins to make one 3-pointer against the Bucks, and this is more tied to the Markkanen bet as well. Collins spends a lot of time camped out in the corner, and if Markkanen finds himself in the lane against Brook Lopez or Antetokounmpo, he should be looking Collins' way on his drives because that is where the help will most likely come from.

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Jazz vs Bucks spread and Over/Under analysis

The Bucks opened as 11.5-point favorites over the Utah Jazz on Monday at FanDuel, but we've seen that number adjust to make Milwaukee an 8.5-point favorite. Bucks -8.5 is a consensus number in the market, but there is varying juice across the sportsbooks, so make sure to shop around for the best price.

The total opened at DraftKings at 246.5 and has fallen to 242.5. We're seeing some 242s out there in the market, and it feels like the Under is being met with some resistance at this point. A few sportsbooks dipped down as low as 242 but were then bet up to 242.5.

Jazz vs Bucks betting trend to know

The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the game total Over in 40 of their last 62 games (+15.80 Units / 23% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Bucks.

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