Jericho Cup: Runner by runner

Kiwi who’s latest fifth in the Group 3 NZ Cup at Riccarton over 3200m shows he’s got a bit of class on some of these. Handles the soft and heavy tracks without a problem. Hasn’t won past 2200m, but is placed right out to 3200m at a good level and being by Savabeel gives him every chance to stay the trip. Big show.
2. Guido
Ultra impressive winning a Road To Jericho heat at The Valley, sprinting off a slow tempo to win by eight lengths. While it’s worth noting that was on a Good 4, his record suggest he’s far better on Soft to Heavy, so it’s hard to see anything from that race turning the tables and looks likely to run the 4600m as good as anything off that. 
3. Leather Jacket Lew
Queenslander who won his Beaudesert heat over 3090m before a ‘fair’ run at Doomben back to 2200m. Handles all surfaces which is a plus and form 2500m+ is actually quite good, but feel like there’s a few here that have a class edge. Outside each-way chance for me.
4. Morton’s Fork
Well-travelled 10-year-old galloper who has returned from a disappointing stint in WA for this after winning a soft qualifying race over 3100m at Albany. Looked poor when beaten favourite last start in a heat at The Valley and big questions on whether going well enough or if he can stay the trip. Can’t see him turning it around.
5. Mr Fabulous
Brought strong form from NSW, winning over 3200m at Wagga before being no match for Guido at The Valley when outsprinted significantly late and looked to be outstayed. Only ever tested once on soft or worse for an unplaced run. Could run well, but hard to see him turning the tables on Guido up further in trip.
6. Highland Blaze
Good win two back at Mornington over 3100m on a Good 3, then failed at The Valley in a heat for this. Back and battled there to make any ground. Races like a grinding stayer who may get the trip, but not sure if he can run it quick enough.
7. Sunday Buzz
Brings some higher-grade flat form than a number of others here and handles all surfaces. Has won to 3300m and being by Zed, he’ll be as good a chance as any for the 4600m. While I feel like the stablemate might just have an edge but could get the services of Kuru if gains a start. I still have him as one of the best chances here.
8. Havisham
Beat some key chances last start at Ararat, but did get things his way in front there. One that is well-bred and profiled to get the trip, but best runs are on good surfaces and Kuru jumps off for one of the two Symon Wilde runners.
9. Da Deputy
Failed in the 2019 edition of this race. Last start produced a tough on-speed effort in a Jericho heat at The Valley against SP, leading and only going down by the barest of margins on the line. May have been aided a touch by leading, but beat a number of rivals here and may try similar tactics again. Risk on a wet track though.
10. Nassak Diamond
Kiwi who has won to 3200m and will be best served on a heavy track where all three wins have come. While a winner three starts back over 3210m in NZ, his efforts around that win are fair at best and will be sweating on that rain.
11. Bear Arms
Back and couldn’t make any ground last time in Guido’s Valley romp. To be fair, that was on a Good track where he is winless from 25 starts. Soft to Heavy he is 10 from 42 (six from 13 on Heavy), so don’t write off sharp improvement if we get into that sort of range. As far as staying goes, he’s proven out to 3200m, but jury out beyond. Outside chance on a wet track.
12. Grand Shanghai
Queenslander who was good in the banana bender’s heat at Beaudesert when a strong closing second, but that form didn’t look to stack up when poor last start in his MV heat. Think he’ll find this hard on last start’s effort.
13. Wilewink
Former Kiwi who has been placed over 3800m in past two and looks a genuine staying chance. Only won the two from 29, which isn’t ideal, but 14 further placings show he’s the grinding type that could sit handy and keep going here to figure.
14. There For You
Well-beaten of late at huge odds and struggling to beat runners home anywhere. Not up to this.

Emergencies
15. Bold Jakkal
OK fifth in his Valley heat, slowly working home from the back which is his style. Though only winning one from 12, is placed another six times and is placed two back over the 3200m. Would need to find a new level to win, but  Can be grinding away late.
16. Staying Strong
Ran second in a Jericho heat at Gawler at a big SP and that race has not stacked up well with form so far. Won one 2050m race from 41 starts and hard to see improving here.
17. Field Of Lights
Jumper who races well on the flat and has won out to 3000m on the flat and 3500m over the obstacles. Last start was good when fourth behind Havisham, but back and not suited by the tempo. Rise to 4600m looks in his favour, handles soft, consistent and if gains a start, looks a big show.
18. Will To Excel
Midfield and poor last time out in Guido’s heat at The Valley. Only fair in recent racing prior and it does look like he’ll find too many of these going better than him. 

OVERVIEW
Tough race to line up as always and we are still unsure just what surface we’ll get. I’m expecting that we’ll be into the Soft range for the Jericho track and maybe the worse side of it. We saw two very differently run 3800m heats at Moonee Valley where many of these horses had their final lead-ups, with one a strongly run effort and the other much steadier before a long sprint home. On what we’ve seen though, I expect this to be a solid tempo, with those on-pace runners who have drawn wide likely wanting to get across and grab the early advantage. If that happens, I’m keen to be on the value of Field Of Lights at the good double-figure price (if he gains a start). If FOL doesn’t gain a start, it’s hard to look past just how impressive Guido was when sprinting hard at The Valley. He’ll get it run faster here but looks to have some real class at this distance range. Prismatic and Sunday Buzz next best for me.

SELECTIONS
17. Field Of Lights (Emergency)
2. Guido
1. Prismatic
7. Sunday Buzz
13. Wilewink