Jets vs. Browns player props odds, best bets: Joe Flacco, David Njoku, Trevor Siemian

It used to be not long ago (a couple of weeks?) you could safely bet the under in primetime night games, especially on Thursday Night Football, and hit at a very high rate.

Not anymore. The market has caught up to the low-scoring trend – like it eventually did with Iowa – and has made adjustments. Tonight’s total for Jets vs. Browns is already under 35 points.

For this reason, we’re staying away from bets on the spread and total. Instead, let’s focus on four player props, mostly with a defensive struggle in mind for at least one team.

When you think of the Jets and Browns, you think of defense. And when you think of Joe Flacco (seven interceptions in four games) and Trevor Siemian three picks, lost fumble in three games), you think of turnovers.

This prop, at plus money, seems like a potential big payout on something so obvious.

The Browns own the NFL’s No. 2 pass defense, per DVOA, and the the Jets are right behind them at No. 3. Both are also in the top 5 in interception rate per dropback.

These defense have each found the end zone on interceptions and fumble returns this season, and with these two quarterbacks, on a short week against stout defenses, the odds of it happening again might not fall into the “likely” category, but something approaching it.

The beauty of this bet is only one team has to do it, and it can even be achieved on special teams.

As covered above, things aren’t expected to go in Siemian’s favor tonight.

Now, you might hesitate considering the quarterback threw for 217 yards against the Commanders last week, but let’s remind everyone that only one team in the NFL has allowed more passing yards than Washington this season. And it’s not Cleveland.

As mentioned above, the Browns rank second in pass DVOA, and their defense ranks first overall.

While the weather conditions are expected to be about as good as it gets in Cleveland in late December (44 degrees at kickoff with light winds and no precipitation), Siemian should struggle to surpass his prop line for tonight.

Perhaps no receiver on the Browns – maybe the entire NFL – has been more consistent than Njoku this season, which is remarkable that anyone could be so steady with all the quarterback changes in Cleveland.

How steady? Over his last seven games, the tight end has averaged six catches, has hit exactly six in four of the games and has cleared his line for tonight six times.

And with Amari Cooper dealing with a heel injury that has made him questionable for the game, Njoku should be in for an even larger target share than usual. The tight end has averaged 10 targets over the last seven weeks, and even had nine last week when Cooper was on the field setting a franchise record for receiving yards.

The Jets’ secondary is one of the best in the NFL. In fact, it is No. 1 in targets, yards and receptions allowed to receivers this season. But against tight ends, New York has shown a weakness, especially of late as each of its last four opposing TE1s have cleared their receptions prop.

Expect Njoku to become the fifth consecutive to do so.

While this will be his greatest challenge in his run with the Browns, Flacco has thrown at least two touchdown passes since taking over as Cleveland’s starting quarterback (four games). In fact, no one in the NFL has thrown for more than his 10 in that stretch.

The counter would be a Jets defense that is among the league’s stingiest at giving up touchdown passes (1.1 per game).

Something has to give, but like the Browns, we’re riding Flacco until the wheels fall off.