Jets vs. Golden Knights prediction, odds: early total shows value

While contemplating a Jets vs. Golden Knights prediction for their NHL Western Conference quarterfinal, some Las Vegas hockey betting history comes to mind.

During the team’s first season five years ago — the first in which an expansion franchise went to the Stanley Cup Final since 1968 — they scored in the first period in nearly every game. The Las Vegas sportsbooks started posting the prop bet and it consistently paid off.

By midseason, the Vegas sportsbooks directors were using the bet as a loss leader, knowing they would lose but the wager was getting more people to bet on hockey.

Flash forward to this season and the Golden Knights are again doing well in the first period entering the playoffs. But so are the Jets.

Tuesday is a good time for bettors to take advantage of both trends.

All odds via BetMGM

Spread: Jets +0.5 (-225) vs. Golden Knights -0.5 (+115)

Moneyline: Jets (+105) vs. Golden Knights (-145)

Total: Over 1.5 (-115) | Under 1.5 (-120)

First-period over -1.5 (-115)

The Golden Knights have 35 wins, 21 losses and 26 pushes on the first-period moneyline this season, according to EV Analytics. That’s tied for fourth in the league.

Meanwhile, the Jets (28-28-26) rank a respectable 14th, showing they, too, are scoring the first period regularly.

So why is this first period total so low? Probably because the Knights are 37-38-1 on the first-period total while the Jets are 34-46-2.

Yet in the teams’ three regular-season meetings they combined to score four, zero and three goals in the first periods.

Also, the Knights have scored first-period goals in their past four home games and seven of their past eight. That includes four goals against the Los Angeles Kings and two against the Minnesota Wild, both playoff teams known for defense.

While the Jets have first-period goals in two of their past four road games, the books are just asking for two first-period goals to win with a -115 juice.

The Golden Knights will roll out an inexperienced goaltender, Laurent Brossoit (7-0-3, 2.17 goals against average in 2022-23), so you might see some nerves heading into his second career playoff game.

The signs point to betting the over on the first-period total. Remember, bet early and enjoy the rest of the game.