Jim Dandy Stakes 2023: Horse Racing Nation expert picks
The Grade 2, $500,000 Jim Dandy is the traditional top-level local prep race for the $1 million, Grade 1 Travers on August 26. Though Saturday's 3-year-old feature at Saratoga drew a field of only five, all of them have shown their mettle in graded-stakes company, from champion Forte through the longest shots on the board. This makes the race an interesting clash of high-quality horses.
Below is how the experts at Horse Racing Nation plan to play the Jim Dandy.
Ed DeRosa, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: No. 4 Saudi Crown
On the board: No. 2 Forte
Long shot I like: No. 3 Hit Show
Analysis: The weight break and pace advantage make Saudi Crown the play here, as I can't imagine he's any less than third choice given the presence of champion Forte, the Kentucky Derby morning-line favorite, and Angel of Empire, the actual Derby favorite. Also, Forte and Angel of Empire are the only Grade 1 winners in the race.
Winner: No. 4 Saudi Crown
On the board: No. 2 Forte
Long shot I like: No. 1 Disarm
Analysis: I am counting on rain Saturday and, with it, the old saw that says a horse that gets out front on a wet track is the only one who will not be set back by mud in his eyes. Saudi Crown has become the wise-guy horse for this race. He is a late bloomer who might have needed more urging sooner to get up in the Dwyer (G3). That said, he has the breeding to stretch to 1 1/8 miles. Forte getting blinkers feels like what Todd Pletcher did in 2013 with Palace Malice, who went lights-out and fizzled in the Kentucky Derby only to come back and win the Belmont Stakes. That was a blinkers-on, blinkers-off circumstance. Could this just be a setup for the Travers? Even though I think it will be Saudi Crown on top with Forte and/or Angel of Empire finishing second and third, that last one is a trick question. Disarm and Hit Show will be the only long shots. My lean then is to Disarm, who has held his own against tougher competition.
Winner: No. 1 Disarm
On the board: No. 2 Forte
Long shot I like: No. 3 Hit Show
Analysis: Disarm was rushed to make the Kentucky Derby and his race spacing was all out of whack. He is in a good place now after a sharp win in the Matt Winn (G3), and figures to save ground stalking the pace at playable odds. Forte tried to win the Belmont in his first start in 10 weeks. He was a solid second that day and might get back on the winning track. Brad Cox trains the other three entrants and Hit Show is his highest-priced runner. He might get first run.
Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace
Winner: No. 4 Saudi Crown
On the board: No. 2 Forte
Long shot I like: No. 3 Hit Show
Analysis: Saudi Crown enters this race off a strong runner-up finish in the Dwyer, where he had 11 lengths on the third-place horse and lost the win spot by a nose to Fort Bragg. Now Saudi Crown stretches out to nine furlongs while facing Forte. His early speed will help him out in this spot as the race lacks another true pacesetter besides him. If Saudi Crown can clear the field and post reasonable fractions up front, then the mild upset becomes possible.
Win: 4 (at 3-1 or longer)
Exacta: 4 over 2
Winner: No. 2 Forte
On the board: No. 4 Saudi Crown
Long shot I like: No. 1 Disarm
Analysis: Saudi Crown looks to be the controlling pace here, but I'm not loving him for the top spot with the class hike and stretch out. Forte is the best in the field and gets blinkers and has upside second off the layoff. This is Forte's race to lose with everyone else running for second.
Rowan Ward, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: No. 4 Saudi Crown
On the board: No. 2 Forte
Long shot I like: No. 1 Disarm
Analysis: Saudi Crown is the only one who reliably goes to the lead; though it is his first two-turn try, he is bred for it and should take the field all the way around. Likely favorite Forte is the class of the field, and rallies well enough into even pedestrian paces to get a piece. Among the rest of the field, Disarm showed good tactical pace in a sloppy edition of the Matt Winn last time, meaning he has the tools to turn in another good effort in a wet Jim Dandy as the joint longest shot on the morning line.
