John Campbell: What's next for Samoa now their Rugby World Cup is over?

Analysis: Samoa are out of the Rugby World Cup after a one point loss to England in a thrilling game. TVNZ Chief Correspondent John Campbell asks – what's next for Samoa now their Cup is over? Is it the wilderness, again?

England 18, Samoa 17.

What a game. What a heartbreaking game. How very proud Manu Samoa should be of that performance.

Perception bias colours so much when you watch sport, but it sometimes felt like the officials didn't have Samoa winning in their script.

Which would make the game a perfect micro reflection of the macro position Tier Two teams find themselves in. Still.

In the first Rugby World Cup, in 1987, the eight quarter-finalists contained just one Tier Two team – Fiji.

Thirty-six years later, in the 2023 Rugby World Cup, unless Japan beat Argentina, the eight quarter-finalists now look likely to contain just one Tier Two team – Fiji.

What a stunning non-triumph for World Rugby. To have transformed the game so little in almost four decades.

Again, today's Samoa-England game is revealing in this respect. In the four years between the 2019 Rugby World Cup and kick-off in this Cup, Manu Samoa played two Tier One teams. Two teams, in four years.

So Samoa arrived at this Rugby World Cup with woefully fewer matches than Tier One teams at the tournament. The comparison with today's opponent, England, is illuminating. England gets the Six Nations. Samoa gets almost no nations at all.

Samoa played with heart in their first three games, of course. But not quite the polish that comes from having been tested and having learnt the lessons from those tests. Practice makes perfect (or gives you a shot at perfection).

Tier One teams get it between Cups, and before Cups, and throughout their crowded and lucrative schedule (mostly against each other). Tier Two teams get it once the Cups have started, which is usually too late.

We saw Samoa's best today. Their fourth game. Their last game. After being together for weeks – as Tier One teams routinely are - and after actually being able to train and focus and play, they were so good today. And so unlucky.

Imagine if they'd arrived at this Cup with anything approaching the build-up Tier One teams take for granted. Imagine it.

I can't find Samoa's fixture list for 2024, but I guess it will be the usual contradiction of World Rugby's now-galling insistence it's a global game.

Scraps, if they're lucky. For which they'll be thrown together, not from Samoa itself (for the most part), but from the teams in Europe, England, Japan, New Zealand, and throughout the rugby world, where the players are forced to go to earn a living.

The playing field is so far from level.

And here's what most insulting. It's not getting more level.

The World League, or Nations Cup, whatever rugby's new top tier competition is called, kicks off in 2026.

Samoa might, if they're lucky, fight their way into it in 2030. But the odds seem against them. Again.

Whatever happens today, don't let anyone tell you World Rugby has even the remotest determination to meaningfully do something about this.

And don't, please, be sucked into the narrative of a noble defeat, and brotherhood, and the beautiful spirit of the Cup. It's too convenient to dress it up as that. It suits rugby's power imbalance, and resources imbalance, and opportunities imbalance too much.

England did what they had to do (although only just). And will move on. The haves having, as is rugby's way.

Samoa's Cup is over and they'll disappear from view, again.

Then, maybe in four years time, at the 2027 World Cup, they'll run another Tier One team close, or even do the incredible and beat a Tier One team (like they did against Wales, in 1991).

And we'll all repeat exactly what we're saying today – imagine what Samoa could do if they actually get some games.

It's embarrassing, World Rugby. It's embarrassing.

After the Tonga-South Africa game, the two teams formed a circle and stood together, then knelt together.

It was a special image. And it circulated far and wide as evidence of rugby's solidarity, and as emblematic of what's best in the game.

But here's what that image didn't reveal. And it's much more representative of the true state of global rugby.

South Africa have played Tonga just three times in all of rugby history. And two of those games were forced upon South Africa by being at Rugby World Cups.

If Tier One teams really like standing in circles with players from Tier Two nations, maybe they could play them more often.

And if we really want Samoa and Tonga to succeed, if we really wish them well, and if we really want to move past the almost nauseating charade of pretending, every four years, to support these teams, the first thing World Rugby has to do is ensure they get regular, meaningful games.