Jones Knows best bets: Man City vs Liverpool special
Jones Knows is back with his Premier League best bets column with a particular focus on Man City vs Liverpool, live on Sky, where he's making a case for a 14/1 shot.
Jones Knows' profit and loss for the season?
After a three-week hiatus from the tipping and betting game for paternity leave where I helped nurture the next Tony Bloom/Matthew Benham through his first few weeks as a human, we are back. The nappies pushed aside.
It's time to get this column rolling back into profit with an in-depth look at the big game on Sky Sports this weekend: Man City vs Liverpool at 12.30pm. The Premier League is back with a bang. Be lucky.
P+L = -13.5
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Liverpool have a problem with the 12.30pm Saturday start time. The evidence is clear.
Many readers of Liverpool persuasion will shoot this down based on back-to-back victories over Wolves and Everton this season in that particular timeslot but I'm yet to be convinced. Jurgen Klopp's side broke a six-game winless run in 12.30pm starts when beating Wolves 3-1 but it was an alarming first-half showing that continued a worrying trend for Klopp's men. A failure to score in that first half, or in the eventual 2-0 win over Everton, means Liverpool have failed to score in seven of their last eight first halves in the 12.30pm timeslot.
That's more than enough proof to declare them as slow starters in this type of environment and the last place you want to go if sleepy football is in your blood is away to Manchester City.
Pep Guardiola's have won their last 23 home games in all competitions by an aggregate of 76-11 - it's the longest winning run by a Premier League team (surpassing Man Utd's 20 games in 2011). If they win on Saturday, they will equal the longest winning home run by an English top-division side, equalling Sunderland's record of 24 successive home wins from 1892.
I think the price dangled of 6/4 from Sky Bet for Man City to winning at half-time and full-time is a juicy one - and provides the centrepiece of this advised 14/1 Bet Builder.
Warning: this next part of the bet is team news related. We're all accustomed to a bit of Pep roulette with his team selection but I'm confident I've read his mind for this encounter which falls under the 'monster game' category.
And what does Guardiola do when a massive game is on his doorstep? He plays Bernardo Silva as part of his front three.
This is how Guardiola has approached recent knockout Champions League fixtures with Bayern Munich and Real Madrid and the final itself against Inter Milan. He also started Silva in the advanced wide position in the 4-1 win over Arsenal in April and the FA Cup final with Manchester United. To Guardiola, Silva is the complete footballer, capable of doing everything his teams require both in and out of possession. He can rely on him when it matters most. Phil Foden usually has to step aside.
This switch in position from his usual central role does have an impact on his performance output.
Playing further advanced does allow the Portuguese more opportunities to be involved at this business end of the chance creation, especially in home matches. His two goals against Bournemouth earlier this month when playing that wide-right role took him to five goals scored in his last three matches at the Etihad Stadium when playing in that front three, following up a double in the 4-0 win over Madrid and another effort in the 3-0 dismantling of Bayern last season.
In a game where Man City are expecting to find fertile ground in behind the Liverpool full-backs, his 9/2 anytime scorer price does stand out if, as expected, Guardiola does select him in that right-side forward role.
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Adding Silva's fouls conceded numbers to the Bet Builder makes sense too in order to boost the price. His fouls conceded data rockets when playing as a right-sided forward against elite opposition as he is likely to find himself in more one-on-one duels down that flank rather than in the hustle and bustle in central field.
In his last seven appearances playing that position against an elite opponent (Arsenal, Real, Bayern, Inter Milan and Manchester United) he has made 19 fouls, meaning he's working at an average of 2.7 fouls per 90 minutes. When you consider the likely attack-minded approach of Klopp's Liverpool, Silva will be kept busy out of possession and is expected to hit around that average in terms of fouls made. We only require one though - and hopefully we'll be onto a 14/1 stunner.
