Juan Soto contract: Brian Cashman thinks Yankees OF is headed for free agency next winter

From pretty much the moment the New York Yankees acquired Juan Soto in a blockbuster, seven-player trade with the San Diego Padres back in December, both sides have been pretty open in acknowledging that this is — for now, at least — a short-term arrangement. Soto is slated for free agency after the 2024 campaign, and given his age (he won’t turn 26 until October), track record (the list of players who’ve done what Soto have done by the time they turn 25 is pretty much exclusively Hall of Famers) and representation (Scott Boras), the expectation is that he’ll exercise that rights.

That expectation solidified even further on Thursday, when Yankees general manager Brian Cashman addressed reporters at the team’s spring media day. Per MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch, Cashman said that “the odds are this is a one-year situation” between New York and Soto, adding that he doesn’t see “too many things stopping him from reaching free agency.”

Again: This is hardly unexpected, and tracks with everything both Cashman and Soto have said publicly since the trade went down. Soto has authored a slash line of .284/.421/.524 — his career OPS+ of 157 is third among active players, behind only to Mike Trout and Aaron Judge — while averaging 133 walks and 33 home runs per 162 games played. He’s highly durable, he’s just entering his prime, and there’s a chance that he hasn’t even hit his ceiling yet. While he won’t reach the stratospheric heights of Shohei Ohtani’s deal with the Dodgers, he’s probably headed for a contract of more than $400 million next offseason — at least. Cashman surely made the call to Boras and Co., because that’s his job, but even if the Yankees were willing to offer Soto market value right now, why not wait until the 29 other teams can up the bidding?

Of course, the fact that Soto is determined to test free agency doesn’t mean that he’s not interested in staying in New York long-term, or that the Yankees won’t have a good chance of re-signing him next winter. The team did just that with Judge just a couple of offseasons ago, as extension talks broke down only for the slugger to eventually sign a (far richer) deal as a free agent. It’ll certainly be costly, but the Steinbrenner family isn’t hurting for money — and the team surely agreed to acquire him in the first place in part because it would give them a year’s head start on their recruiting pitch.

Until then, though, the focus is on 2024, a season in which New York will be just about as all-in as all-in gets. That was always going to be the case, given the disappointment of 2023 and the fact that Judge and Gerrit Cole aren’t getting any younger, but the specter of Soto’s free agency adds yet another dash of urgency. Their odds of contending this year are a heck of a lot better with Soto in their lineup, and they’ll hope to put off his free agency for as long as possible with a deep October run. After that, it’s probably open season for his services, and Cashman and the Yankees are fully aware of it as is the rest of the league.