Juddmonte Irish Oaks: runner-by-runner guide and 40-1 tip
Racing TV's Harry Allwood puts all eight contenders under the microscope in Saturday's Juddmonte Irish Oaks at the Curragh plus makes a case for one at a big price.
WATCH: Aidan O'Brien shares the inside track on his Juddmonte Irish Oaks contenders in a special episode of On The Wire. Our expert team also provide their best bets for the Curragh this weekend
Eight fillies will bid for Classic glory in the Juddmonte Irish Oaks at the Curragh on Saturday, live on Racing TV at 3.45pm.
Aidan O'Brien is seeking a record-breaking seventh victory in the race and holds a strong hand with four runners, headed by Betfred Oaks runner-up Savethelastdance who is the choice of Ryan Moore.
The ground is yielding to soft, at the time of writing, and there's the possibility of 20-25mm of rain on Saturday, so there is likely to be plenty of give underfoot, if the forecast is correct!
For a detailed going description, watch the video posted by IHRB on Twitter below:
�� Brendan Sheridan
— IHRB (@ihrbie) July 18, 2023
��@curraghrace
�� Ground update ahead of racing this weekend
��️ Weather forecast
�� Entries close at 12 noon today with @HRIRASpic.twitter.com/yycbri90wF
Here is a guide to all eight contenders in the €500,000 contest, as well as some galloping clues.
1. AZAZAT
Trainer: Dermot Weld. Jockey: Chris Hayes. Best odds: 14-1.
Watch how Azazat fared when last seen
Has improved with every run and although she was no match for Savethelastdance on her second outing at Leopardstown in April, she took a big step forward to score at the same venue when upped in trip to 12 furlongs on her next start.
The form of her latest effort reads well as she was narrowly denied by the 110-rated Rosscarbery who, admittedly, was probably lacking for fitness that day, but franked the form with a decent effort in the Pretty Polly Stakes on her next start where she shaped better than the result suggests having been hampered.
Azazat handles cut in the ground and clearly relishes this trip plus was a narrow second on debut at the Curragh last year, so there's a chance this daughter of Camelot could outrun her double-figure odds.
2. BE HAPPY
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien. Jockey: Billy Lee. Best odds: 20-1.
Won nicely on debut last year, despite showing lots of greenness, and looked a useful performer in the making, but hasn't quite scaled the heights expected since.
Having suffered defeats in two Group Three contests, she was readily brushed aside by Eternal Hope on her first outing over this trip in Lingfield's Oaks Trial, the form of which hasn't worked out that well (the winner and the fifth were both well beaten in the Betfred Oaks on their next starts).
Be Happy hasn't been seen since due to a couple of setbacks, and while Aidan O'Brien's runners in Irish Classics are never easily dismissed given his brilliant record in them, his charge has work to do to lower the colours of some of the leading contenders.
3. BLUESTOCKING
Trainer: Ralph Beckett. Jockey: Colin Keane. Best odds: 6-1.
Bluestocking was narrowly deined by Warm Heart at Newbury in May
The least exposed runner in this field with just three runs under her belt, and has shown bundles of promise on each of those outings.
Took the step up to Listed company in her stride when a narrow second to Warm Heart at Newbury before finishing a luckless third behind that rival in the Ribblesdale Stakes when last seen.
Her latest effort suggests she stays this trip (she was staying on all the way to the line) and has won on good to soft, which bodes well for her handling any further ease in conditions, especially as her dam and sire both won on soft ground.
Ralph Beckett has been operating at a 23 per cent strike-rate in the past fortnight, and the booking of Colin Keane catches the eye. One for the shortlist.
4. COMHRA
Trainer: Jim Bolger. Jockey: Rory Cleary. Best odds: 40-1.
Shaped with promise in Group Three contests before taking a big step forward to finish third, at odds of 150-1, in the Tattersalls Irish 1,000 Guineas in May when wearing first-time cheekpieces.
Faced a stiff task against older rivals in the Pretty Polly on her next start where she trailed in last, and connections blamed her below-par performance on an allergy she picked up at Royal Ascot which forced her to bypass the Coronation Stakes.
She's a sister to 1m6f Group Three winner Cimearashe, so her pedigree suggests she should relish this trip plus has hinted on a couple of occasions that she's in need of further.
It remains to be seen whether her effort behind Tahiyra at the Curragh was a fluke (it certainly didn't appear to be), and she will need to bounce back quickly following her disappointing run three weeks ago. However, she's not without hope if she repeats her penultimate effort.
5. LIBRARY
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien. Jockey: Gavin Ryan. Best odds: 80-1.
Library won the Naas Oaks Trial in June
One of the most experienced in the field, although this Galileo filly is going to need a few to underperform to go close based upon what she has achieved so far.
It is probably best to forgive her latest effort where she was hampered plus appeared to fail to stay the trip, and she travelled strongly en route to Listed glory when producing a career best two starts ago.
That effort still leaves her with plenty to find on ratings, and there's also a chance she could act as the pacemaker here for her better-fancied stablemates.
6. LUMIERE ROCK
Trainer: Joseph O'Brien. Jockey: Dylan Browne McMonagle. Best odds: 10-1.
Scored at Group Three level as a two-year-old and has continued her progress this season having gone close in the Blue Wind Stakes (watch above) before splitting Warm Heart and Bluestocking in the Ribblesdale Stakes.
There's no obvious reason why she will reverse form with Warm Heart here, despite the fact she did meet trouble in running at Royal Ascot (which didn't affect the result), and needs to raise her game again to record Classic glory.
She's proven on soft ground, so the return to these conditions may prove advantageous, and she also remains unexposed over 12 furlongs.
7. SAVETHELASTDANCE
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien. Jockey: Ryan Moore. Best odds: 5-4.
Looked a potential superstar when winning the Cheshire Oaks by 22 lengths in testing conditions this year, and proved that victory was no fluke when finishing second in the Betfred Oaks on good to firm ground.
She was probably slightly flattered by the manner of her win at Chester due to the conditions, but she relished the give underfoot there, and when winning on her seasonal debut, so any further rain that falls won't hinder her chances.
How strong is the Betfred Oaks form? Six of the nine fillies who ran in the Epsom showpiece have run again since, and all of them - bar Soul Sister who was third in the Grand Prix de Paris - have finished out of the frame.
That performance still leaves her clear on the ratings here, and Ryan Moore has chosen to ride the daughter of Galileo over her three stablemates. The one to beat.
8. WARM HEART
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien. Jockey: Seamie Heffernan. Best odds: 7-2.
Rapidly-improving filly who showed a good attitude to defeat Bluestocking in a Listed race at Newbury in May before recording an authoritative success in the Ribblesdale Stakes.
Although she has won plus been placed on testing ground, she did appear to tire towards the finish on both occasions, and is probably best suited by quicker conditions.
Based upon the manner of Warm Heart's Royal Ascot victory, I expect it wasn't the easiest decision for Ryan Moore to ride Savethelastdance, and the likelihood of give underfoot probably helped sway his decision.
Big-race verdict:
With ground conditions in her favour, and Ryan Moore on board, Savethelastdance could prove tough to beat, especially as she's 4lb clear of her nearest rival on ratings.
However, at the 40-1 on offer, I can't resist siding with COMHRA each-way. Jim Bolger's filly is more exposed than most of her rivals here, but her third behind Tahiyra in the Tattersalls Irish 1,000 Guineas is one of the standout pieces of form on offer, and it is best to forgive her latest effort which was too bad to be true.
Cheekpieces made a big difference to her in the Guineas, and if they continue to work the oracle, she certainly isn't without hope at huge odds.
Her sister won over 1m6f, and the selection was staying on strongly in the Guineas after settling better than she had been previously, so there's a good chance she will stay this new trip.
