Kansas City Royals 2024 Season Preview and Prediction
Baseball is officially back and it is officially March as all 30 teams continue to work their respective Spring Training sites. We are just 27 short days away from Opening Day 2024 as the 162-game gauntlet begins once again. While the start of the season nears close, there are still several big-name free agents who remain without a home. While that will be factored into this series, each preview will be updated appropriately once those players eventually sign. Those updates not only include the team who signs that player, but also teams that could potentially be negatively impacted as well. It’s time to take a look at the Kansas City Royals.
Team: Kansas City Royals
Division: American League Central
2023 Record: 56-106
2023 Finish: 5th AL Central, 14th AL, 29th MLB, missed playoffs
The Rundown
The Royals were one of the most active teams this offseason signing multiple free agents and inking star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to a massive extension. Hunter Renfroe, Adam Frazier, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Garrett Hampson were all signed this winter. However, the Royals were not done there as Will Smith, John Schreiber, Nick Anderson and Chris Stratton were all acquired to revamp the bullpen. Kansas City has shown they are serious about competing, both now and in the very near future.
The Royal lineup starts very strong as MJ Melendez, Bobby Whitt Jr. and Salvador Perez make up a potent top three. Entering his third MLB season, Melendez is primed for a breakout year. The 25-year-old must get his home run totals and OPS up while keeping his strikeout numbers down to take that step forward. Melendez hitting 20 home runs, 30 doubles, 80 RBIs and registering an OPS north of .775 will be a sensational season.
Perez is still putting up very good numbers entering his 13th MLB season. The 34-year-old smashed 23 bombs with 80 RBIs and a .714 OPS. He will remain a staple in the Kansas City lineup. Witt will be the star for the Royals for the next decade following his monster contract extension. The 23-year-old slugged 30 homers, drove in 96 runs, stole 49 bases and slashed .319/.495/.813 a year ago.
Vinnie Pasquantino and Hunter Renfore help support the middle of this lineup as KC will look for at least a combined 40 home runs between the two. The Royals will then turn to a slew of players to round out the bottom four of their order. Michael Massey, Nelson Velazquez, Kule Isbel, Maikel Garcia, Garrett Hampson and Adam Frazier will all rotate into the lineup throughout the season. Most of those six players possess the versatility to play both the infield and outfield, which gives second-year manager Matt Quatraro options to match up with opposing pitching on a nightly basis.
The pitching remains a question for the Royals in 2024. 26-year-old Coel Ragans appears to be the ace of the staff after tossing a 3.47 ERA in 96.0 innings last season. Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha will be next in line in the rotation. Lugo is coming off a solid season in San Diego, where he had a 3.57 ERA in 146.1 innings. Wacha also had a great season in San Diego last season, registering a 3.22 ERA in 134.1 innings. Brady Singer enters a make-or-break year after having a down 2023. The right-hander notched a 5.52 ERA last season but has tallied ERAs in the mid-threes in the past. Jordan Lyles rounds out the rotation as purely an innings eater until the Royals can call up another starting pitcher.
Kansas City brought in a slew of bullpen arms, including veteran Will Smith. The three-time World Champion has closed in the past for these championship teams and should get the bulk of the ninth inning work. Outside of Smith, there is no established pecking order yet in the Royal bullpen. Young arms James McArthur and John McMillon are projected to be back-end pitchers to start the year, but I think KC is better suited putting newly signed veterans in those roles early on. Veterans like John Schreiber, Nick Anderson and Chris Stratton have consistently pitched in late-inning scenarios before. The Royal bullpen will be one to monitor as the season gets going.
Projected Roster and Alignment
Players to Watch
The obvious selection here is Bobby Witt Jr., fresh off his massive extension. The 24-year-old is possibly the least-talked about must-watch player in the league. A nearly 30-50 season with almost 100 RBIs makes for superstar numbers. Brady Singer would be my other pick for a player to watch. The 27-year-old right-hander had a 3.23 ERA in 2022 before bottoming out with a 5.52 in 2023. If Singer can get back to his 2022 form, another element of potential playoff depth would be added to this team. Finally, the bullpen battle and overall structure will be something to keep an eye on as the year progresses.
Top Prospects
Blake Mitchell is the lone representative on MLB’s top 100 list. The 19-year-old was selected eighth overall in last season’s draft. Mitchell has a 70-graded arm along with 55 overall hit and power grades. The catcher bats left and throws right, and could transition to right field if he cannot stick behind the plate. Mitchell was drafted for his bat out of high school.
Nick Lofton will be in the major league at some point this season. The 25-year-old utility player hit .323 with a slash line of .3688/.435/.803 in 62 at bats in the show last season. Tyler Gentry is another 25-year-old that should find himself in the majors at some point this season and could provide a power bat off the bench late in the year.
2024 Prediction
The Royals will be much better than the 106-loss team they were a year ago. Every aspect of this team improved compared to last season. The success of this team will depend on its lineup depth and starting pitching success. Ragans and Singer are both entering make-or-break years while Wacha and Lugo look for continued success carried over from 2023. The bullpen has the makings of being an above-average MLB unit but, as mentioned before, the pecking order will be fluid over the first month or so of the year. I do not think the Royals are a playoff team in 2024, but they will take that first step forward. Look at Pittsburgh’s 14-win improvement from 2022 to 2023 as an example of this. Kansas City is on the rise.
