Kansas vs Oklahoma State Odds & Prediction: Can Jayhawks Cover?

Kansas Jayhawks vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Odds

Kansas looks to build off of its best offensive performance of the season when it travels to Stillwater to take on Oklahoma State in Saturday afternoon Big 12 action.

The Jayhawks are coming off a 51-22 beatdown of UCF last weekend in which they rushed for nearly 400 yards. They now sit at 5-1 in a look-ahead spot with a huge game against Oklahoma looming next weekend. However, they had better take this game seriously or that game against the Sooners will have a lot less meaning.

The Cowboys (3-2) are riding high after a huge upset win over Kansas State last Friday night. Mike Gundy seems to have settled on Alan Bowman as his starting quarterback. Bowman had a great game against Kansas State but has had mixed results this season, and that's true even going back to his time at Texas Tech.

Gundy is 14-14 ATS as a home underdog in his career, so we'll see if the Pokes can pull off back-to-back upsets against both Kansas schools.

Find a betting pick, preview and prediction for Kansas vs. Oklahoma State below.

Kansas' rushing attack is one of the most dynamic in the country, and it showed that last weekend against UCF. After that performance, the Jayhawks are now averaging 5.9 yards per rush attempt and are among the top 20 in Rushing Success Rate and EPA/Rush

The running-back tandem of Devin Neal and Daniel Hishaw Jr. ran for over 100 yards apiece against UCF, but Neal is the true lead back. This season, he's averaging 7.7 yards per carry and 4.19 yards per carry after contact to go along with 28 forced missed tackles.

Quarterback Jalon Daniels will miss another game on Saturday, but Jason Bean, who's been in the Kansas system for a long time, is a very capable backup and is having a nice season.

Bean only attempted 12 passes against UCF last weekend, but when he's been asked to throw, he's averaging 8.2 yards per attempt and has a 74.3 PFF Passing Grade.

The Jayhawks have maybe the craziest combination of defensive rankings in college football. They rank an elite sixth in generating Havoc, but they sit 124th nationally in Finishing Drives Allowed because opponents have crossed their 40-yard line 30 times and scored 144 points on those drives.

The Jayhawks have struggled to stop both the run and the pass this season, as they rank outside the top 70 in both EPA/Rush and EPA/Pass Allowed, while also being 120th in both Passing Explosiveness and Rushing Explosiveness Allowed.

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Oklahoma State has been struggling to move the ball offensively. Gundy rotated three different quarterbacks early on in the season but seems to have settled on Bowman as the starter.

Bowman has had some mixed results this season. He was incredibly poor against Iowa State, with a 45.5 PFF Passing Grade and three Turnover Worthy Plays, but he thrived against Kansas State last Friday night when he had three Big Time Throws and an 80.4 PFF Passing Grade.

Bowman started his college football journey at Texas Tech, transferred to Michigan and has now made his way to Oklahoma State.

It's been almost four years since Bowman was a starter at Texas Tech, but when he was there in 2020, he really struggled.

He only averaged 6.9 yards per attempt and had 12 Turnover Worthy Plays compared to just nine Big Time Throws, so even though he had a nice game against Kansas State last Friday, he may not be a stable long-term option for the Cowboys.

Ollie Gordon II has now emerged as the main running back in Stillwater. He has run for over 100 yards in back-to-back games against Iowa State and Kansas State while averaging 6.3 yards per carry and an impressive 4.07 yards per carry after contact.

It would benefit the Cowboys to have more of a run/pass balance like they did last Friday. For the season, they're throwing the ball on just over 56% of their offensive plays, but they should be handing the ball off to Gordon more often.

The Oklahoma State defense has really struggled this season. The Cowboys were solid in limiting Kansas State in the red zone, but the Wildcats still averaged 5.2 yards per play. They've been good overall at stopping the run, but when they faced their biggest test last Friday night, they struggled.

The Wildcats ran for 220 yards and averaged 5.8 yards per play, but the Cowboys were saved by three Will Howard interceptions.

Kansas vs Oklahoma State

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas and Oklahoma State match up statistically:

Kansas vs Oklahoma State

Betting Pick & Prediction

There are real question marks about whether Oklahoma State can actually stop Kansas' rushing attack, given how easily Kansas State ran in Stillwater last Friday.

Even with Bean at quarterback, Kansas has a mobile option and someone who knows the system like the back of his hand, so the drop-off from Daniels to him really isn't that drastic.

Bowman isn't the answer at quarterback for Oklahoma State, and the only way to achieve a decent run/pass balance is to give Gordon the ball as much as possible if playing with a lead.

If the Pokes fall behind and Bowman is forced to try throw the ball 35+ times, it's a bad recipe, even if Kansas' secondary has been subpar.

Plus, the weather forecast is calling for wind speeds of 15+ miles per hour at kickoff, so that very much favors Kansas, which is running the ball on 63.3% of its offensive plays.

Even though this is a lookahead spot for the Jayhawks with the Sooners waiting on deck, this line is a tad low on one of the best rushing attacks in the country. Our Action Analytics projections make the spread Kansas -6.2, and I'll take the Jayhawks to cover at -3 or better.