Kenny Pickett and the high-stakes guessing game between bookmakers and bettors

The favorite has changed in 10 of the opening lines for college football bowls since Dec. 5. The strong>Quick Lane Bowlstrong> spread has moved 11 points since Wednesday. Betting on college sports is a tradition during bowl season. Bookmakers and bettors are trying to guess which players will opt out of a game.

Kenny Pickett is a Heisman Trophy finalist and likely first round NFL draft pick. He is expected to play in the upcoming Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. Oddsmakers and bettors are guessing whether he will play. Michigan State is the favorite. The line is 75% of the way to where it would be if he wasn't playing. If he's in, it's probably Pitt -3 or -4.5. if not, the number is probably Michigan -2 or 3. The number would probably be -5 or +4 if Picket doesn't play, and -1 or 2 if if the team is not.

Pittsburgh is playing in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. The line moved toward Michigan State early in week. Offensive coordinator Mark Whipple resigned on Dec. 7. On Dec 8, Pickett said he was "undecided" about playing.

Paul Stone is a respected college football bettor based in Texas. He was in Las Vegas on Dec. 5 when the opening lines on bowl games hit the boards. Nevada quarterback Carson Strong declared for the NFL draft on Tuesday. Stone bet on Pittsburgh's Peach Bowl, but he was wrong. i in the game. i.e. he bet over 62.5 points on Kenny Pickett, who is now rethinking his decision to play in Peachbowl. I believe he won't play. i . I think it's fairly evident that Carson isn't going to be playing in Quick Lane Bowl.

Motivation is a key factor in handicapping bowl games for both bettors and bookmakers. Memphis has gone from a 3.5-point favorite to a 7. 5-points favorite over Hawaii at Caesars Sportsbook. The SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas dedicates two members of its bookmaking team to monitoring Twitter for opt outs and bowl news. It's the same approach that the Superbook takes with NBA players sitting out on load management. It is who finds out the information first. Fortuna, a professional bettor, is confident he gets the info on the bowls before the bookies.