Kensington tips: Silent’s chances is loud and clear

The Daily Telegraph form analyst Mitch Cohen gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Warwick Farm on Wednesday.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

BEST BET

Race 6 No.6: SILENTSAR

Led from the front and dominated to win at Canterbury fresh from a break. He can do the same second-up.

NEXT BEST

Race 7 No.8: SOVEREIGN FUND

The Peter and Snowden-trained galloper returns a gelding. Looks to have returned in good order at the trials and can capitalise from a good draw.

VALUE BET

Race 5 No.9: NOISY BOY

Third-up now and up to an appropriate 1550m assignment. He will get back and be one of the strongest late.

BEST EXOTIC

Race 1: Quinella 3,4

QUADDIE

Race 4: 2, 3, 4, 10

Race 5: 1, 2, 7, 9

Race 6: 6

Race 7: 1, 8

TRAINER TO FOLLOW

After a pair of stakes victories last weekend, John O’Shea has his yard firing and comes to town with four great chances.

INSIDE MAIL

RACE 1

Mountain Guest finished runner-up in a Group 3 Adrian Knox Stakes in the autumn tested in a Group 1 Australian Oaks, finishing 14th. Trainer John Sargent has dropped him back to the provincials and he's been thriving with a pair of victories at Kembla Grange and Newcastle. The son of Tarzino should relish the 1800m and can keep winning. Monfelicity is a daughter of French stallion Vadamos that’s been racing well over 1800m already this preparation. She was a winner two back at Hawkesbury before finishing runner-up in a Midway event behind Elettrica at Rosehill Gardens, both over the same trip. Lady Redwood should make natural second up improvement off a first up second at Kembla.

Bet: Mountain Guest to win. Quinella 3,4.

RACE 2

Evelyn May carries form around a subsequent Group 1 winner into her second preparation. The John O'Shea-trained filly finished 1½ lengths off JJ Atkins Stakes winner King Colorado in a 1400m assignment which was her last two-year-old run. Her recent trials indicate she’s ready to make a big return over 1400m. Matusalem returns from a break with a couple of nice trials under his belt. He is drawn to get every chance from barrier two with J-Mac aboard. Suspect is a $1.9m son of I Am Invincible that hasn’t been far away in similar grade at his past two starts and should appreciate stepping out to seven furlongs.

Bet: Evelyn May to win.

RACE 3

Orzala is a blue blood daughter of Snitzel out of dual Group 1 winner Norzita and she looks to have a bit of talent herself. The smart filly is one of two John O'Shea-trained chances in the race and steps up to 1400m now after a competitive second over six furlongs at Newcastle last time. She’s drawn to get every possible chance from barrier three. Stablemate Captain Amelia is her main danger for sure. The Dundeel filly was an excellent first up at Gosford over a track and trip that didn’t seem to suit her. Back on home turf, she will be hard to hold out. Tropical Squall has the perfect draw to land on speed without much trouble and will be the one that needs catching.

Bet: Orzala to win.

RACE 4

Yasuke is one of four remaining Chris Waller-trained runners in a competitive affair after Ashwall was saved for another day. He is first up but has won over the same trip fresh from a spell before. There’s no doubt he will improve as he gets over more ground but he looks ready to run a big race first up. River Kitty has a superior draw to his stablemate in barrier four and gets in well with 57kg. He chased hard to win at Hawkesbury last time and only needs to repeat that showing to be competitive. Capital Asset looked to have plenty to offer when racing without much luck last time and should strip fitter third-up.

Bet: Ashfall to win.

RACE 5

Noisy Boy is a Muswellbrook-trained galloper that looks ready to take on Sydney‘s heavyweight yards at juicy odds. The Todd Howlett-trained gelding had to do things the hard way from last when finishing on the placegetters heels over 1400m at Newcastle last time. The step up in trip here looks ideal while the better draw (barrier five) gives Jay Ford the chance to settle closer. Kapakiri finished runner-up in that Newcastle affair and is a consistent commodity with five placings from nine starts. He will have to do it with the topweight of 60kg from an awkward gate (9).

Bet: Noisy Boy each way.

RACE 6

Silentsar put his second win on the board with a dominant first-up success at Canterbury. He led and dominated in win over 1100m while carrying 61kg but drops to a more manageable 59kg here. He should settle in the first half of the field and take plenty of catching again. Lavish Empire is a former Mark Newnham-trained galloper having his first start for the Snowdens. He’s a winner and placegetter first-up before and look ready to return when doing his best work late in his only trial. So Audacious was an impressive winner of her only start at Warwick Farm on Australia Day. A repeat of that performance puts her right among the chances.

Bet: Silentsar to win.

RACE 7

Sovereign Fund showed plenty of promise during his two-year-old season with two wins from six starts including the Wyong Magic Millions. He makes his return with the ultimate gear change after having a gelding operation and tipping it does the trick for him. He’s won his only trial in the lead up, gets a good draw and J-Mac aboard - tick, tick, tick. Sebonack was a Group 3 winner as a 2YO so has talent on his day. He’s trialled up nicely for his return but would have to do it with the hefty impost of 62kg. Markwell Dreamer was a half length off the winner at the same track and trip last time and is drawn to get a soft run again from barrier one.