Kentucky Derby 2023: Post Positions And Odds Set, Forte Is The 3-1 Favorite Breaking From The 15-Hole, Tapit Trice Faces The Crush Inside

The 2023 Kentucky Derby "pill pull" is done and dusted, and the morning line has been nailed to the floor. Race week begins with a bang, as it becomes clear that Forte, the widely expected favorite at 3-1, has literally drawn a fine post position outside the rugby scrum that fits his late-running style, from the 15th stall in the massive Churchill 20-stall gate.

With no further ado, herewith, the post positions and the morning line odds. The 20th horse drawn is Continuar. It should be noted that the “AE” notation attached to the horses below him stands for “alternate entry.” That signifies that they’re fully invited but not yet, quite, in the race. They will move up (in that drawn order) into the race should any of the first 20 horses drawn are scratched by their owners, trainers, Churchill drug tests, or their own veterinarians up to post time.

Put another way — and this is most significant for the huge fields brought by the Kentucky Derby as explained in this space on April 30 — if there are as many as three scratches from the originally drawn field of 20 over the course of this week, that would allow Cyclone Mischief, Mandarin Hero, and King Russell to move up into the race. In that event it would only be possible for those alternates to get whichever far outside stall becomes available in order of their draw.

Said yet another way, if Hit Show, in the unenviable Derby post position on the rail, is somehow scratched from the race, then every horse already in the race moves one hole closer to the rail, freeing up the 20-hole way out west for Cyclone Mischief. It isn't possible for the alternates to move to any other stall than those vacated by every other horse moving to the inside. The furthest inside Cyclone Mischief can come is if there are three scratches from the current twenty. That would put him in stall 17.

It's Churchill's way of saying, our draw is the draw, baby. The horses that move into the race move in in order that they are drawn. As we know, no matter who or how many are scratched, the saddle cloth numbers do not change.

The key for players in the Derby is to spread the risk throughout their exotics — and while it's always good fun to assay a win bet, it’s worth noting that the last four Derbies have not been won by the favorites. That means a little something, but it's the sort of factoid that ignores the deep quality of this year’s field, specifically, the upper-middle of this field with prep stakes-winners such as Tim Yakteen's Practical Move and Larry Rivelli's Two Phil's. But Forte is — by far — the class of the Class of 2023, leading this already-strong field in purses, and in the authority and power of his juvenile career.

1 - Hit Show (30-1)

2 - Verifying (15-1)

3 - Two Phil’s (12-1)

4 - Confidence Game (20-1)

5 - Tapit Trice (5-1)

6 - Kingsbarns (12-1)

7 - Reincarnate (50-1)

8 - Mage (15-1)

9 - Skinner (20-1)

10 - Practical Move (10-1)

11 - Disarm (30-1)

12 - Jace’s Road (15-1)

13 - Sun Thunder (50-1)

14 - Angel of Empire (8-1)

15 - Forte (3-1)

16 - Raise Cain (50-1)

17 - Derma Sotogake (10-1)

18 - Rocket Can (30-1)

19 - Lord Miles (30-1)

20 - Continuar (50-1)

21 - Cyclone Mischief (AE) (30-1)

22 - Mandarin Hero (AE) (22-1)

23 - King Russell (AE) (50-1)

The formidable Kentucky-born trainer Brad Cox leads the field with an amazing four entries, including the first two horses off the rail, the also-ran Hit Show and the middle-of-the-pack runner Verifying. Further outside, breaking from the 12- and 14-holes respectively, Cox has two slightly better shots in Jace's Road and Angel of Empire, of whom Angel of Empire seems to have at least the past performances to wind up in the mix at the finish.

But it is Pletcher who is the trainer on the spot in this race, with hot runners Forte and his stablemate, Tapit Trice, who looks to be ready to give everybody in the gate a run for their money. Of the two, Tapit Trice has the harder job coming out of the 5th stall in the gate, with much of the crush to his right and coming down on him. He and his jockey Luis Saez will have to work to find a comfortable haven in that madness, so that a bet on Trice becomes as much a bet on Saez's piloting skills as it is on the horse. The man is a fine and winning pilot, by the way, but the Derby crush is the Derby crush.

As a vastly entertaining feature of the Derby, it's ONLY to be hoped that the formidable Texan and furniture-store magnate Jim “Mattress Mack" McIngvale is so moved by Forte that he does his nutty promotional splash again this year, dropping up to Louisville on this or that private jet, slamming down a hot million or two on Forte's nose and giving away for free all the bedroom sets and Barcaloungers ordered in the Derby runup by his customers down in the Lone Star State. (Last year's 80-1 long shot winner Rich Strike cost Mr. McIngvale some $2.6 million in the two heart-stopping minutes of that race, or $1.3 million per each five-eighths of a mile.) By the same token, last fall Mattress Mack had a very good 2022 World Series, betting an eye-watering $2 million on the Houston Astros and cashing in a history-making ticket for just under $75 million.

The message is that we shouldn’t worry about Mr. McIngvale's bottom line: His promotional trick for the Derby is that his customers have to order north of $3000 in Mattress Mack goods before post time, then pay up if the Derby favorite doesn’t win. Obviously, Mr. McIngvale has trained his customer base to jump in with him over the years, and a clear and distinct favorite such as Forte only exacerbates the fervor down Houston way. Still, if Forte mops up at the finish as the trackside chattering class thinks he will on Saturday, in Houston that will mean quite a few long tons of free 'Made-In-America' pressboard and faux-walnut veneer walking out the door of Matress Mack's.