Kentucky Derby expert picks: Tapit Trice best bets and more
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The 149th Kentucky Derby is just days away, and we have our picks ready for fans interested in watching and wagering on America’s biggest horse race.
2023 Kentucky Derby odds and preview: best bets for Kentucky Derby props at Churchill Downs
This year’s race at 1¼ miles is expected to have a moderate pace compared to last year’s blistering fast fractions that produced a deep hard-closing long-shot winner at 80/1 odds.
Despite a more wide-open race being expected, this year’s top favorites and contenders seem like legitimate win options, even with the rash of scratches that have come down in recent days.
Included are parimutuel odds, which will adjust on race day as bets come flooding in on the Derby. The horses that rate out highest include:
- Tapit Trice (9/2)
- Angel of Empire (9/2)
- Derma Sotogake (7/1)
- Two Phil’s (7/1)
- Kingsbarns (10/1)
That may not be as realistic in this year’s Derby, but some double-digit odds horses are capable of winning and/or cashing in with a top-3, 4 or 5 finish to win some exotic bets.
That includes those above in Derma Sotogake, Two Phil’s and perhaps Kingsbarns, Verifying and Disarm.
2023 Kentucky Derby picks: Keying on Derma Sotogake odds and adding Tapit Trice
Since the Derby went to a points qualifying system in 2013, six straight race day favorites won The Run for the Roses from 2013-2018. Will it happen again?
Here's how to bet the race including some picks to win and Kentucky Derby exotic bets to gain the most bang for your buck.
Pick 1: $10 Win, Place on #17 Derma Sotogake (costs $20)
I’m keying on Derma Sotogake with the anticipation of a big finish from the Japanese horse.
He’s a top value play, and a horse that is loaded with strong breeding and stamina having won twice before at 9 furlongs and the 9.5 furlongs of the UAE Derby.
He owns a very fluid stride which makes him tactical as he can win on the lead or sitting off the pace.
This colt may be the one to finally snap the 0-for-19 streak for UAE Derby runners that have raced in the Kentucky Derby.
Note: Bettors win both wagers if the selected horse wins the race, but only the place bet if the horse comes in second place.
Pick 2: $6 Win and Show on #5 Tapit Trice (costs $12)
Stamina-rich Tapit Trice is training super well leading up to this race. He’s improved each race in 2023 while winning all three including the Blue Grass Stakes.
This galloping gray son of Tapit just gobbles up ground with his long stride, and his late pace speed figures are strong.
He’ll need to come from off the pace and stay out of traffic trouble, but this horse is likely to be the favorite for Belmont if he stays healthy, but he’s a worthy win wager as well for the Kentucky Derby.
Note: Bettors receive a payout on both the win and show bet if your selected horse wins the race. If your horse comes in third place, you will only win the show bet.
2023 Kentucky Derby best bets and exotic picks
Practical Move, Forte and Skinner have been scratched from the Derby since Thursday, impacting our wagers. But here are some other Kentucky Derby exotic bets to consider.
Kentucky Derby exacta pick (first and second place in exact order): $2 Exacta #17 with #3, 5, 6, 7, 11, 14, 22 ($14)
- Kentucky Derby exacta box pick (all 1st/2nd outcomes for selected horses): $1 Exacta Box #5, 17, 3, 6 ($12)
2023 Kentucky Derby betting strategy
My research of the Kentucky Derby includes information from Horse Racing Nation and its Super Screener time-tested, robust research methodology.
These guidelines are based on a powerful set of “benchmarks of performance” while evaluating “how” a horse has been running and improving leading up to the race.
That’s more significant than “where” he finished and in “what” time he completed his prior races as tracks have different speed biases.
Keep in mind that I’m interested in adding longshots if they offer potential and the race sets up accordingly. Last year, I had a small win bet on the huge long-shot winner Rich Strike, and cashed-in at 125/1 fixed odds offered by select sportsbooks.
His parimutuel odds on race day were 80/1 as he drew in from the alternate list due to a horse scratching on Friday a day before the Derby.
Also remember that big bettor Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale is expected to be at Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Derby. He bet $1.5 million on the favorite Epicenter to win last year, and he finished second.
A similar bet on a leading favorite makes for a bigger payoff in the place and show pools.
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