Kentucky Derby Odds After Forte Scratched

Kentucky Derby odds as of May 6 at TwinSpires.

Forte Scratched Due to Bruised Foot

Early Kentucky Derby betting favorite Forte won’t participate in Saturday’s race due to a bruised foot. Veterans from the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission say that the colt had developed the bruise a few days ago.

Forte’s trainer, Todd Pletcher, initially downplayed an incident Thursday in which the horse stumbled on the track during a workout. X-rays have shown that the horse doesn’t have any serious injury, but he requires a few more days to recover.

Forte has been a favorite to win the Kentucky Derby ever since the odds opened back in December 2022. The American Thoroughbred had a legit shot at pulling off the Triple Crown after capturing wins at the Grade I Hopeful Stakes, Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and the Florida Derby.

Forte’s scratch from Saturday’s race narrows the field down to 18 horses, which is the smallest field since 2020 when just 15 horses competed due to COVID-19 restrictions. Six horses have also died in the lead-up to this race, with the most recent being Chloe’s Dream on Saturday afternoon.

Tapit Trice & Angel Of Empire Now Co-Favored

With previous favorite Forte no longer in the race, Tapit Trice and Angel of Empire have emerged as the new favorites to win the Kentucky Derby. Both horses have moved from +600 to +450, meaning they have 18% implied probability to win the $1.86 million first-place prize.

Tapit Trice is a gray/roan Thoroughbred who claimed victories at the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes and Grade III Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs. Angel of Empire, on the other hand, has also enjoyed success, earning first place at the Grade I Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park and Grade II Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds.

Although Tapit Trice and Angel Of Empire are now co-favored, the field is still pretty wide open. There are five horses with odds shorter than +1000 and no horse with odds shorter than +450. The two horses with the longest odds are Jayce’s Road and King Russell at +3200, but they still have a 3% chance to win.

Kentucky Derby Best Bets

Angel of Empire is certainly an intriguing Kentucky Derby bet considering he’s the son of Classic Empire and won the Arkansas Derby by open lengths. However, we believe the best value on the board, comes in the form of No. 17 Derma Sotogake (+700).

Sotogake is one of two Japanese horses in this year’s derby and is coming off an impressive win at the UEA Derby. While a Japanese horse has never won the Derby, they’ve enjoyed plenty of success on the international stage this year, suggesting a win at Churchill Downs might be around the corner.

Sotogake has been trained by the experienced Hidetaka Otonashi, who has trained Group 1 winners such as Chrysoberyl and Mozu Superflare. With Forte being a late scratch, our money is on this Japanese chestnut Colt surprising the crowd in Lousiville.

Kentucky Derby Prediction: Derma Sotogake to Win (+700)

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