Kentucky Derby odds: Forte favored to win 149th Run for the Roses

The NBA and NHL playoffs have reached their second round. Major League Baseball has moved into its second month. And the NFL Draft hangover still lingers.

Come Saturday afternoon, though, the sporting world’s eyes will turn to Churchill Downs in Louisville for the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby.

This year’s Run for the Roses features a stacked field of 20 thoroughbreds, with Forte leading the pack as the favorite following Monday’s post-position draw.

Forte opened with 3/1 odds to win the mile-and-a-quarter race, with Tapit Trice the second choice at 5/1. Both colts are trained by two-time Derby winner Todd Pletcher.

They join Brad Cox-trained Angel of Empire (8/1) as the only 3-year-olds in the field that opened with single-digit odds.

Here’s a look at odds and post positions for the 2023 Kentucky Derby, along with some historical trends pertaining to the fastest two minutes in sports.

Odds updated as of May 1.

It’s tempting to throw Forte, Tapit Trice and Angel of Empire into a $2 all-favorites trifecta. After all, the trio of ponies have hit the wire first in 14 of a combined 18 career races.

This year alone, the three have combined to go 7-for-8, with Angel of Empire being the only one with a blemish — and he finished second in his one non-victory at the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park on New Year’s Day.

All three horses also picked up marquee Derby-prep victories last month. Forte won the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park; Tapit Trice took the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland; and Angel of Empire prevailed at the Arkansas Derby at Oakland Park.

Of course, Tabia and Epicenter had similar sparkling résumés a year ago when they opened as Kentucky Derby co-favorites. However, both finished behind winner Rich Strike, who lived up to his name by edging Epicenter for a stunning victory as an 80-to-1 long shot.

It was the second-biggest upset in Kentucky Derby history, trailing only Donerail, who won the 1913 Derby at 91-to-1.

Rich Strike also became just the second winner to come from the 20th post position in Derby history. The first was Big Brown in 2008.

The good news for this year’s top three favorites? All drew favorable post draws Monday.

Tapit Trice will come out of the No. 5 slot, while Angel of Empire and Forte will load into the gate side by side and Nos. 14 and 15. Assuming they break clean, all three should be in solid position to maneuver to the coveted rail and set the pace.

History suggests Tapit Trice will have the best shot of the bunch to pull out a victory: More Derby winners (10) have come from the No. 5 slot than any other post position.

With Rich Strike’s shocker in 2022, four of the five biggest upsets in Derby history have occurred this century.

The others: Country House, who was elevated from runner-up in 2019 after winner Maximum Security was disqualified, cashed at 65-to-1; Mine That Bird paid 50-to-1 in 2009; and Giacomo also delivered at 50-to-1 in 2005.

This year, four horses — Reincarnate, Sun Thunder, Raise Cain and Continuar — opened with long odds of 50-to-1.

The combined number of career wins for that quartet of 3-year-olds: Nine in 37 starts.

However, the four thoroughbreds have finished in the money — first, second or third — 23 times in those 37 races.

The last time significant long shots — odds of 20-to-1 or greater — won the Derby in consecutive years? It’s never happened.

Other notable Kentucky Derby trends:

1. From 2013 to 2018, the favorite at post time won the Derby five times. The only exception during that six-year stretch was 2017 winner Always Dreaming, which went off among the top favorites at 9/2 odds.

2. Those five horses are the only post-time favorites to win the Derby since Big Brown in 2008. Every other winner (aside from Always Dreaming) has cashed at 8/1 or better.

3. While the No. 5 post position has produced the most Derby winners (the most recent being Always Dreaming), the No 8 and No. 10 slots are a close second with nine each. Mage (15/1) will fire out of the eighth gate, while Practical Move (10/1) will occupy the 10th chute.

4. A total of 15 horses have won the Derby coming out of the first or second gate. However, the last pole-position winner was Ferdinand back in 1986, while the last winner from the No. 2 spot was Affirmed in 1978.

5. The No. 17 post position has never won the Run for the Roses. That history doesn’t bode well for Derma Sotogake, which opened as the co-fourth choice with Practical Move 10/1 odds, trailing only Forte, Tapit Trice and Angel of Empire.

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