Kentucky Oaks fair odds: Find value in these 3 fillies

Much has been made about the Kentucky Derby pace, or in the opinion of some soothsayers, the lack thereof. But the Kentucky Oaks looks potentially void of early zip as well.

That's significant because the morning-line favorite and most likely winner on my fair-odds line is the deep closer Wet Paint. She is undefeated in four starts on dirt but has never been within three lengths of the lead early on that surface and won from last in her prep for this.

Her stablemate Botanical has two gate-to-wire wins to her credit, but the Brisnet Pace Ratings indicate she's not as fast early as others, and those front-running efforts came on the Tapeta surface at Turfway. This will be her dirt debut.

So who can get the lead? Flying Connection is intriguing from that standpoint. She is the only "E" type on the aforementioned past performances, and jockey Florent Geroux has won this race before from an outside post in 2018 aboard Monomoy Girl.

I do not expect Defining Purpose to be on the lead, but she could make the first move on Flying Connection. And given that if they drew in, I'd like either Punchline or Julia Shining, who were second and third, respectively, in the Ashland Stakes (G1), then how can I not like the actual winner of that race, Defining Purpose?

If the pace is quick, then that benefits Wet Paint. But it could benefit Southlawn as well, and at a bigger price.

Based on conversations I have had at Churchill Downs, I think both Cox trainees could go lower than their morning-line prices. That makes Flying Connection, Defining Purpose and Southlawn likely to offer value. I'll box them in the exacta and play trifectas where one of the Cox fillies can be in the mix with two of my three.