Keys and trends for the 2023 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
The $1 millionGrade 1 Breeders'Cup Juvenile Turf is an excellent betting race. The full fields offervalue because only two favorites havewon since the race’s inception. However, they finish second or third 50 percentof the time.
Secondfavorites have won once and hit the board three times. The third choice is theway to go. They won three straight from 2014 to 2016 and again in 2019 and 2022.
The Europeansdominate, specifically Aidan O'Brien and Charlie Appleby. Together, theyaccount for 14 wins and runner-up finishes in the last decade.
Notes about Santa Anita
The Breeders’ Cup has been hosted by Santa Anita a total of 10 timessince 1984, seven in the last 16 years.
Santa Anita’s turf course is nearly a mile (7 furlongs, 132 feet). Itoffers the famed 6 1//2-furlong downhillcourse, which features the only right-hand turn on an American track, a flatturf chute and the main oval.
The one-mile Juvenile Turf will be contested over the flat oval.
The turns for route races are sharper than the main course, offering aslight advantage to inside posts.
How Santa Anita’s surfaces play in the weeks leading up to the Breeders'Cup will indicate winning running styles. The turf has been firm all seventimes that Santa Anita hosted.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at a glance
All stats are for 2007-2022
Breeders'Cup challenge event previous results
Prep races
7* winners wontheir final prep.3 — PilgrimStakes (G2)3 — Dewhurst Stakes (G1)2 — Bourbon Stakes (G2)2 — Prix de Conde (G3)1 — Grand Criterium (G1)1 — Prix Morny (G1)1 — Royal Lodge Stakes (G2)1 — Star AppealStakes1 — SomervilleStakes (G3)1 — SummerStakes (G3)1 — Weight forAge* 2021 includesthe winner, Modern Games, who was scratched but then allowed to run forpurse money only, and Tiz the Bomb, runner up, who paid as the winner.
2023Breeders' Cup challenge winners
Qatar PrixJean-Luc Lagardere Grand Criterium (G1) — Rosallion
Runner-upUnquestionable is entered in the Juvenile turf.
Summer Stakes(G1) — Carson’s Run
ChampionsJuvenile Stakes (G2) — Diego Velazquez
Winner notentered in the Juvenile Turf.
RoyalLodge Stakes (G2) — Ghostwriter
Winner not entered in the Juvenile Turf.
Bourbon Stakes(G2) — Can Group
Pilgrim Stakes(G2) — Agate Road
Payouts:
Average winpayout: $19.05
Lowest: $9.00Line of Duty (2018)
Highest: $62.40Fire at Will (2020)
How thefavorites fared:
Winning post positions*
* Including2021 Tiz the Bomb and Modern Games (IRE).
Winning style, determined by position at the half-mile pole*
Presser, withintwo lengths of the pace.
Mid-pack, 2 1/2 tofour lengths behind the pacesetter.
* Including2021 Tiz the Bomb and Modern Games (IRE).
2 wereundefeated.
2 had twoprevious starts.
3 had threeprevious starts.
6 had fourprevious starts.
3 had fiveprevious starts.
1 had sixprevious starts.
1 had sevenprevious starts.
Winner: Structor won the PilgrimStakes (G2).
Second-place finisher: Billy Batts won the Zuma BeachStakes.
Third-place finisher: Gear Jockey won the DixianaBourbon Stakes (G3).
Since 2007, European horses have a 63: 10-6-2record in the Juvenile Turf.
Trainers
Aidan O'Brien has a 21: 5-5-0 record in the JuvenileTurf. In five of those years, he started two horses. Four won or placed and the other finished off the board. O’Brien was blankedonly once when he entered two starters. He won last year’s event with his onlystarter, Victoria Road.
Pay attentionwhen Charlie Appleby enters a runner. He has a 5: 4-1-0 record. Last year, hisentry, the favored Siver Knot finished second, beaten a nose.
Jockeys
Ryan Moore haswon the Juvenile Turf five times, all on O'Brian-trained horses.
Frankie Dettorihas won three times, and William Buck, Julien Leparoux, and Jose Ortiz havewon twice.
This year’s contenders
Ashley Tamulonis, From Coast to Coast: Atthe top of my list is the undefeated Endlessly.Conditioned by Mike McCarthy, the son of Oscar Performance enters off a victoryin the Zuma Beach (G3) over this track. The 90 Brisnet Speed RatingEndlessly received for that victory is the highest turf speed in the field andthe highest last-race speed rating. Additionally, the colt’s speed ratings haveimproved with each start.
Another topchoice for me is Islandsinthestream, who ran a couple of seconds to the well-regarded Henry Longfellow and enters off a confidence-building victory in allowance company.
Bourbon (G2) winner Can Group,who is undefeated in two starts on the turf, and Summer Stakes (G1) winner Carson’s Run also should be strongly considered, though Can Group’s speed ratings aresubpar.
Unquestionableis worth a look, and I find My Boy Princeto be an intriguing prospect. He earned a field-best 98 Brisnet Speed Rating in his 14-length romp in the Simcoe Stakes on all-weather and was a goodsecond in the Summer Stakes after a shoe repair. He enters off avictory in the restricted, black-type Cup and Saucer Stakes.
Laurie Ross: Unquestionableis the best of Aidan O’Brien’s charges. He was under a firm hold directlybehind the leaders in the Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere in the early stages, grabbedthe lead in the stretch, only to be denied late by Rosallion, a winner of threeof four starts, and who set a new record of 1:18.23 for seven furlongs. Unquestionable’sonly out-of-the-money finish was a fourth-place finish in the Phoenix (G1), when he bashed his head against the starting gate and lost histwo front shoes.
Agate Roadsailed down the middle of the lane to win the Pilgrim (G2) by 1 1/4 lengthsunder a hand ride by Jose Ortiz. Although his 85 late-pace number is average, theTodd Pletcher trainee performed effortlessly and outclassed his competition.Three colts have pulled off the Pilgrim-Juvenile Turf since 2016.
Endlesslyis undefeated in a trio of California starts, including the Zuma Beach (G3).His speed ratings rose in each start, so we’ll see how the Mike McCarthytrainee stacks up against the international crowd and whether he can duplicate hissire Oscar Performance’s 2016 Breeders’ Cup Turf victory.
Can Groupshowed a brilliant turn of foot in the Bourbon when he sweptpast a full field to get his nose on the wire first. Although the Mark Cassetrainee earned a low 79 Brisnet Speed Rating for his effort, he owns a 98 late-pacerating, the highest in the field.
After beingdenied by a half-length in the With Anticipation (G3), Carson’s Run circledthe field to capture the Summer Stakes by 2 1/4 lengths. The CristopheClement trainee’s speed ratings have risen in each start, and his late paceratings are all in the 90s.
Todd Pletcher’sNoted ranlate with Can Group and received an identical speed rating. He previouslycaptured the one-mile Sapling at Monmouth. Noted has tactical speed, a crucialtrait for a large Breeders’ Cup field. Noted is cross-entered in the Breeders’Cup Juvenile.
Santa Anita last hosted the Breeders’ Cup in2019 and 2016.The winners paid double digits, $12.60 and $15.20, respectively.Ten of the 16 Juvenile Turf heroes won theirfinal prep, including the last six winners. The rest finished second or third,and only one contender didn’t own black type as a Juvenile Turf entrant.Favorites won twice and placed eight times.Santa Anita is the place to be for the favorites.In the seven times the track hosted the Juvenile turf, one won and four placed.
No pacesetter has won the Juvenile Turf. Pace pressers (within 2 1/2 lengths at the half-mile) have won five times, three ofthem at Santa Anita.Six winners employed a deep closer (six or morelengths) off the pace.
If Aidan O'Brien enters two horses, one willlikely hit the board.
