Knicks vs. Magic prediction: how we’re betting this Eastern Conference matchup

We have a Knicks vs. Magic prediction as New York tries to snap a two-game losing streak.

The Knicks are the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference, but they’ll still need to pick up some wins down the stretch to avoid dropping into a play-in tournament spot.

New York is just two games ahead of the seventh-seeded Miami Heat. The good news for the Knicks is that they still have the second-softest schedule remaining, as their opponents have an average winning percentage of .456.

A win against a pesky Orlando team would go a long way toward guaranteeing a top-six finish for New York.

However, the Knicks face the dreaded back-to-back after playing Wednesday night in Miami.

In this preview, I’ll share how bettors can take advantage of this situational spot.

Spread NYK -3 (-110) vs. ORL +3 (-110)

Moneyline: NYK (-154) vs. ORL (+130)

Total: Over 229.5 (-110) | Under 229.5 (-110)

Under 229.5

With nine games left in the season, Orlando is 4.5 games out of the play-in tournament.

And while that might seem like a mountain too big to climb, I would argue that Orlando has already overachieved.

That’s because earlier this month, the Magic went over their win total of 26.5 games with plenty of room to spare.

And given how Orlando has overperformed, it’s no surprise that bettors have also done well at the window. Our Action Labs database shows Orlando is 40-32-1 against the spread (ATS) for 4.34 units.

The Magic will have a one-day rest advantage over the Knicks, who will play their second game in as many nights.

As a result, I’m not in a rush to run to the window to back the Knicks.

The play I think does offer some value is to play the game under the total of 229.5 points.

This number seems slightly inflated after the Knicks scored at least 120 points in their past two games.

Thus, you can imagine that the public will be lining up to bet on this game to go over, which is why I think this is the appropriate time to jump off the bandwagon.

Orlando’s offensive efficiency will make it a challenge to clear this total. Per TeamRankings, the Magic rank 26th with 108.4 points per 100 possessions.

Orlando also isn’t going to trouble its opponents with a lot of perimeter shots, as it’s 27th with 10.6 3-point field goals per game.

Instead, the Magic are more likely to attack from inside the perimeter, whether on isolation plays or passes into the paint.

That play design generally works to New York’s defensive strength on defense as it ranks fifth in forcing opponents to score 49.2% of their field goals on two-point attempts.

Those numbers could explain why the total is on a 4-0 run to the under in this series.

Moreover, when the Knicks are on the road, coming off back-to-back performances of 120 or more points and facing a Southeast division team, the total is a perfect 3-0 to the under.

Based on those findings, I think there’s sufficient reasoning to warrant playing this game under 229.5 points.