Knicks vs Warriors Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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18 March 2024

Knicks vs Warriors Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

New York will head into the Bay Area shorthanded, but with those absences comes new opportunities. With offense needed somewhere, our NBA picks are backing Donte DiVincenzo to have a big game.

The New York Knicks will travel to the Chase Center to take on the Golden State Warriors, and I've searched through the NBA odds to find you the best bet for this matchup.

Jalen Brunson has delivered back-to-back 40-point performances for New York, and while betting on the Over for his points prop is always tempting, my focus will be on one of his teammates.

Find out which player I'm backing to surpass his points prop in my free NBA picks for the Knicks vs. Warriors on Monday, March 18.

Knicks vs Warriors odds

Knicks vs Warriors predictions

I was hoping to get this article written before O.G. Anunoby was ruled out for the New York Knicks because then you would be sitting pretty with a Donte DiVincenzo Over 15.5 points (-122) that was available earlier this morning. Unfortunately, that's not the case.

The good news is, there's still a probability gap for DiVincenzo at his updated price of 17.5 (-104) because with Anunoby out, DiVincenzo's projection for his points prop also increases from 17.8 points to 19.1.

So why do I love DiVincenzo's points prop in this spot? Well, for starters, the Knicks need his offense, with a big emphasis on need. Without Julius Randle and now Anunoby, someone needs to shoot the ball. Even if DiVincenzo is running cold, he'll be encouraged to keep shooting. He has to, and you can see that in the number of attempts he takes from beyond the arc.

The Golden State Warriors also like to play a small-ball lineup and have very limited rim protection. The majority of DiVincenzo's points come from the 3-pointer, but he's plenty capable of getting downhill and attacking the rim. Against teams with shot blockers, not really, but that's not the case with Golden State.

I also like this play because the game is at Chase Center, which was DiVincenzo's home court last season. It may seem minimal, but every edge in sports betting counts, and for someone who played all of his home games in this building last season, he'll be familiar with the shooting backdrop.

DiVincenzo is projected to have 19.1 points which allows us to price the Over 17.5 points at -130, but it's available at -104 at BetRivers for a positive expected value of 11%.

My best bet: Donte DiVincenzo Over 17.5 points (-104 at BetRivers)

Knicks vs Warriors same-game parlay

Donte DiVincenzo Over 17.5 points

DiVincenzo Over 3.5 threes made

DiVincenzo Over 2.5 assists

Pairing the Over 3.5 threes made for DiVincenzo isn't going to multiply the odds as much as you'd probably like, but it's because these two props are extremely connected, especially for this player. I'd be stunned if DiVincenzo goes Over his points prop and doesn't make at least four 3-pointers to help us get over the 17.5 points.

If you want to chase a bigger payout but still want to use only the DiVincenzo props, you could use the alternate total of 19.5 points with the alternate Over of 4.5 threes made. Your odds will jump to +375 on this same-game parlay. I just wouldn't go higher than 19.5 on the alternate points because you want that extra 3-pointer to cover the extra points you added.

I'm also pairing the Over 2.5 assists with the points and threes made for DiVincenzo. The Warriors are familiar with his game and will try to run him off his spot and force him to become a facilitator instead of a shooter. With limited rim protection for the Warriors, I wouldn't be surprised if we see DiVincenzo find a cutting Josh Hart for some buckets at the rim.

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Knicks vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis

The Warriors opened as a four-point favorite over the Knicks on Monday, and we've seen that line climb to Warriors -6.5. No doubt, this is a response to Anunoby being ruled out, as New York is missing several key pieces tonight. Unlike the Dubs who are completely healthy and ready to roll.

The total opened at FanDuel at 211.5 and is still trading there as we approach tip-off. It did touch as high as 213 at FanDuel but has found its way back to the opening number of 211.5. The total of 211.5 is also a consensus number across the board, so don't be surprised if this is where it settles.

Knicks vs Warriors betting trend to know

The Warriors have hit the fourth-quarter game total Over in 37 of their last 59 games (+11.75 Units / 17% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Warriors.

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