Kraken vs Stars Odds, Picks, and Predictions

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02 May 2023

Kraken vs Stars Odds, Picks, and Predictions

The Kraken pulled a stunner vs the Avalanche, stifling the defending champs with defense. But the Stars were even better in that respect than Seattle in Round 1, and our NHL betting picks expect the plucky underdogs to struggle offensively tonight.

The Dallas Stars welcome the Seattle Kraken to American Airlines Center tonight for Game 1 of their second round series. The Kraken are fresh off a series win over the defending champion Avalanche, while the Stars dispatched the Wild in six games.

Dallas owns the stingiest defense of all 16 teams that have participated in the playoffs, which bodes well for them against a Seattle squad that hasn’t generated much offensively this postseason.

Can Seattle break through in Game 1, or will Dallas shut them down at home? We’ll discuss in our Kraken vs Stars NHL picks and predictions for Tuesday, May 2.

Kraken vs Stars Game 1 odds

Kraken vs Stars series odds

Kraken vs Stars Game 1 predictions

The Kraken will be riding high after an improbable series win over the Stanley Cup champion Avalanche, capped off by a 2-1 victory in Game 7.

Seattle benefited from some excellent goaltending from Philipp Grubauer, who posted a .926 SV% in the series — a huge bounce-back from his .895 SV% in the regular season.

While the Kraken were strong defensively against the Avs, they scored just 18 goals — or 2.57 GPG — in the first round, placing them 12th out of 16 teams. Jaden Schwartz, Oliver Bjorkstrand, and Morgan Geekie all shared the team lead with two goals apiece, so Seattle could struggle to generate much offense against a tight Dallas defense.

The Stars, meanwhile, gave up just 2.33 GPG — the top mark in the first round. Jake Oettinger posted a sterling .929 SV% and a 2.01 GAA while allowing just one goal in his last two starts.

Seattle was able to get by in the regular season due to its strong depth, but top scorers Jared McCann (questionable) and Andre Burakovsky (out) could both be absent for Game 1. McCann scored 40 goals in the regular season — 16 more than the second-highest scorer on Seattle — so his potential absence could be a huge hit to the Kraken’s already lackluster offense.

Either way, I suspect we’ll see another strong defensive performance from the Stars, who should hold the Kraken to two goals or fewer in Game 1.

My best bet: Kraken Under 2.5 Goals (+100 at BetMGM)

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Kraken vs Stars Game 1 moneyline analysis

The Stars opened as the clear favorite for Game 1 at -164, and saw their edge grow to around -180 at most books by Monday night. While I love a good underdog story as much as anyone, I think Dallas will take the early series lead tonight.

For starters, the Stars have both of the top offensive players in the series: Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson. With five goals and 12 points, Hintz leads the NHL in points heading into the second round. Meanwhile, Robertson is coming off a fantastic season with 46 goals and 109 points, finishing tied for sixth in league scoring.

While Grubauer has been great for Seattle so far this postseason, it’s hard to believe he’ll be able to maintain that level of play after two underwhelming seasons with the Kraken. Even if he is able to keep it up, I think Oettinger is more likely to steal some games for the Stars.

Kraken vs Stars Game 1 Over/Under analysis

The total for Game 1 opened at 5.5 goals and while that’s a low number, I do like the Under tonight.

Seattle’s last four games have all featured five goals or fewer. The Kraken scored three goals or fewer in six of seven games against the Avalanche, and two or less in four of those contests.

Dallas generally played to low-scoring affairs in the first round as well, with four of six games featuring five goals or fewer. The Stars scored at least three goals in four of six contests, but have surrendered just three goals total over their last three outings.

The Under has cashed in four straight games for Seattle while going 7-1-1 in Dallas’ last nine home games.

If the teams perform similarly to the first round, we should see some strong goaltending and not a whole lot of scoring in Game 1.