Ky. Derby: Vegas oddsmakers ponder Pletcher vs. field

Todd Pletcher has not the one but the two horses to beat inKentucky Derby 2023. At least that is true in the prism of Las Vegas futures.

The Hall of Fame trainer and two-time Derby winner actuallyhas three of the top six betting choices. At one point this month, with theircombined 2023 record of 8-for-8, Forte, Tapit Trice and Kingsbarns were theconsensus top three in the futures market.

What if there were a prop bet offering those three Pletchersvs. the field?

“I would make the three Pletchers plus 145 and the fieldminus 165,” said Johnny Avello, the horse-playing dean of Las Vegas bookmakers.

For now this is mythical, since the DraftKings Sportsbook hedirects still is expanding its nascent racing operation and getting states’approval for such bets. For now his operation takes action of this sort inother sports and even non-sports, like the Academy Awards.

“I’ve done this all the time,” Avello said. “For years.”

Another active Nevada oddsmaker who responded anonymously tothe Horse Racing Nation question went the other direction, saying hewould make the Pletcher trio minus 135 and the field plus 115.

“I imagine the Pletchers would take the first couple bets,so I could see it moving higher,” he said.

Yet another Las Vegas bookmaker agreed, saying, “I wouldthink the (Pletcher colts) would be minus, but I don’t know what the publicwould be willing to lay.”

Each of these sportsbook veterans was asked the questionwithout knowing what the others said. In reality, though, Las Vegas casinos donot operate in isolated bubbles. If Avello really offered better than 7-5 totake the Pletchers, and his rivals put up plus odds to bet the field, playerswould devour them quickly in an effort to middle the market and guarantee themselvesprofits. Something would have to give. And fast.

One might think the oddsmakers would have to mind their ownstores even more carefully to make sure there was not some lopsided valuebetting the Pletchers individually or collectively.

“We thought about it, but it’s really just a derivative ofthe individual horses,” a former horse booker said. Then he thought about theyears Bob Baffert brought well-backed strings to the Derby. “I was justimagining what kind of odds Baffert would be carrying. His last name might be aseven-letter word for underlay.”

Avello, who has a reputation for being fearless about takingbets, was not swayed by the correlation argument. To his way of thinking, thewin pool for Derby futures would not be the same as the prop pool.

“They’re just separate entities,” he said. “You mentionedjust Pletcher here. I could do the same with (Brad) Cox. I could do the samewith (Tim) Yakteen. You could do this with a few different trainers.”

Avello, though, understood why the Pletcher stable thisspring could drive a him-or-them betting market.

“Things could change on race day,” he said. “I think TapitTrice is going to be roughly 5-1 or 6-1. Kingsbarns, 8-1, 10-1, somewhere inthat area. Forte? I’m not really sure where he lands. Is he 5-2? Is he 3-1? Ishe higher? If he’s 3-1, 7-2, then that price I just gave you, the wise guyswould lay the field, because there would be more value there.”