Lakers vs Clippers odds, picks, predictions: Bet on this alternate under
The Lakers will try to win their first regular-season series against the Clippers in 11 years when the teams meet Wednesday night in Los Angeles.
The Lakers won the first meeting by five or fewer points before the Clippers won the third game by an 11-point margin.
Both teams come into this contest off a loss, but it’s the Lakers who are in a worse position, given they’re seeded 10th in the Western Conference standings.
Although the Lakers have won seven of their last 10 games, their 27-33 (45%) mark against the spread (ATS) is the seventh-worst in the league.
It’s worth noting that 60% of the teams in the league are covering their spread at a 50% clip.
The Clippers (29-27 ATS) are certainly one of those teams, but they’ll have to do without the services of Paul George.
George will miss a second straight game due to soreness in his left knee. We’ve seen examples this season where George’s absence might’ve contributed to a lower-scoring game.
In this preview, I’ll share why bettors should expect a similar occurrence on Wednesday night.
Spread: Lakers +3.5 (-110), Clippers -3.5 (-110)
Total: Over 234.5 (-110), Under 234.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Lakers +138, Clippers -164
Odds via FanDuel
The Lakers are one of the more frustrating teams to watch because it feels like they give away games too cheaply.
At home, Los Angeles is one of the better defensive teams, as TeamRankings has them seventh in efficiency with 108.7 points allowed per possession.
But as soon as they hit the highway, their defensive integrity goes right out the window. Los Angeles allows roughly six more points per 100 possessions on the road.
Even more surprising is that the Lakers have been relatively healthy with their two superstars, LeBron James and Anthony Davis, playing in at least 86% of their games this season.
Last year, neither player was featured in more than 68% of the Lakers’ regular-season games.
James (ankle) and Davis (illness) are on the injury report and will be game-time decisions. If one or both are inactive, we’ll likely see more adjustment to the total, which opened at 236.5.
Although the Lakers are technically the visiting team in this matchup, perhaps the familiarity of Crypto.com Arena will be enough to spur the same type of defensive effort and commitment we generally see when they’re the home team.
Understanding tempo and flow is critical to my analysis when handicapping a total. The Clippers are one of those teams that excite me because they rarely change their style of play, whether at home or on the road.
They rank 26th with 101.4 possessions per game, and there’s not much separation when we look at their splits, considering they average 101.6 possessions at home and 101.1 on the road.
What’s particularly interesting is that with the league’s top half averaging at least 102.7 possessions at home, the Clippers remain successful in playing the game at their methodical, deliberate pace.
Perhaps the biggest revelation is that, per KillerSports.com, the Clippers are one of 16 teams with an average total of more than 230 points. Of those, the Clippers are one of six to cash the under more than 50% of the time.
Moreover, the Clippers have the highest profitability (57.4%) for under bettors among those six teams by a 4% margin.
Thus, it’s fair to say the Clippers are yet another team the market continues to misprice with their totals.
Whenever a key player is inactive, I’m always interested in how the sportsbooks respond. How quickly did they adjust the point spread, and by how much? Did they change the total?
In my experience, I’ve found any change to the total generally comes after the point spread.
However, there’s also the chance the books just leave their original number up, allowing the betting market to shape the number.
In this instance, I think that’s precisely what occurred because GimmetheDog.com shows two games where George was inactive, and the total closed at 236.5 points or higher. Both games finished under the total by a combined margin of 15 points.
The market is starting to catch on, with this total already bet down to 234.5.
Given this line move, our Action Labs database shows the under is on a 5-0 run in Lakers’ divisional games, where an opening total of 236.5 or more points was bet down.
While my model projects a total closer to 233 points, 235.5 is more of a key number than 236.5. As a result, I’d recommend playing FanDuel’s alternate total under 235.5 at -118 odds.
Pick: ALT total under 235.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
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