Lakers vs Nuggets NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions

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20 May 2023

Lakers vs Nuggets NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions

There was an offensive explosion in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, but the Nuggets' Aaron Gordon wasn't a major part of it. However, our NBA betting picks are calling for an improved effort from him tonight.

The opening game of the Western Conference finals didn’t disappoint. Well, unless you took the points with the Los Angeles Lakers or bet the Under. Otherwise, that was a fun one.

The Denver Nuggets held off a second-half surge from L.A. to win a very entertaining 132-126 matchup to tip off this series, and are now installed as 5.5-point home chalk for Game 2 on Thursday night. That spread is slightly slimmer than the closing line of Denver -7.5 in Game 1, with the betting markets respecting what they saw from Los Angeles in the final 24 minutes on Tuesday.

Lakers vs Nuggets Game 2 best odds

Lakers vs Nuggets Game 2 picks and predictions

Aaron Gordon was the only Nuggets starter to not shoot better than 50% from the floor in Game 1, wrapping the series opener with 12 points on 4-for-9 shooting along with a rotten 4-for-8 night from the foul line.

That effort proved to be the fifth straight game in which Gordon has played Under his point prop, with his dozen points falling just shy of his prop total of 13.5 on Tuesday.

Gordon seemed lost within the offense at times during Game 1, and eventually the Lakers decided to switch Anthony Davis on to the 6-foot-8 forward, knowing A.D. could help on Nikola Jokic with little threat that Gordon would make them pay with points.

Gordon’s point prop for Game 2 is once again at 13.5 O/U, but the Over is presenting value at EVEN money. His recent outputs of 12, eight, 10, 11, and nine points are anchoring this shift in vig, but his player projections are calling for more Thursday night.

Gordon’s projections sit above 16 points with a ceiling of 17.7 for some models. My number is just short of 16 points, which is still a comfortable cushion against his tempered total for Game 2.

He was much more active offensively in the opening round of the playoffs, averaging 13.4 points against Minnesota, and opened the series versus Phoenix with outings of 23 and 16 points before that five-game Under run.

Gordon left points on the table in Game 1 with those missed free throws, and if Davis does draw him as an assignment, there could be ample space for Gordon to operate as the Lakers throw double teams at Jokic in the paint.

Considering the gap in the prop total and Gordon’s projections (as much as 4.2 points with some models) along with the EVEN money price tag, this is too much positive expected value to pass up in Game 2 of the Western Conference finals.

My best bet: Gordon Over 13.5 points (+100)

Lakers vs Nuggets Game 2 same-game parlay

Aaron Gordon Over 13.5 points

LeBron James Over 25.5 points

Jamal Murray Over 5.5 assists

Gordon’s point projections top out closer to 18 points, while my number is more modest (just short of 16), which is still good to trump this 13.5-point prop.

LeBron James was quite passive in the first half of Game 1 (11 points) but turned it on in the second half (15 points). I expect James to play with that intensity for 40-plus minutes in Game 2.

Jamal Murray finished Game 1 with five assists and went Under his assist prop for the third straight game. His Game 2 projections are north of six dimes, and this total has tipped to 6.5 at some sportsbooks. Go Over on the lower number for this Western Conference final SGP.

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Lakers vs Nuggets Game 2 spread and Over/Under analysis

As mentioned, the Game 2 spread has tumbled from its opening number and sits shorter than the closing line for Game 1. Books posted Denver as big as a 6.5-point home favorite, and that has been bet down to -5.5 with early play on L.A. on the bounce back.

The Lakers looked dreadful in the opening half, trailing the Nuggets by 18 points at the break. However, Lakers head coach Darvin Ham made some lineup shifts and mixed up his defensive assignments, which slowed a red-hot Nuggets attack and allowed Los Angeles to get within eight points in the final frame.

Ham’s biggest adjustment was moving star center Anthony Davis off two-time MVP big Nikola Jokic and throwing reserve forward Rui Hachimura at Denver’s centerpiece, giving L.A. more size on the floor. While Jokic put in an all-time postseason performance — 34 points, 21 rebounds and 14 assists — the adjustment allowed Davis to play more weakside help and impact shots, and Jokic went quiet down the stretch.

The Lakers can’t afford another big hole early on in Game 2, as they had very little left in the tank after fighting back in the final 24 minutes — a feat made especially tough in the thin air inside Ball Arena. Ham may roll out a bigger starting lineup Thursday to combat Denver’s dominance on the glass (outrebounded L.A. 47-30 with 15 offensive boards) but also preached energy and hunger to win those 50/50 balls.

The most interesting odds set for Game 2 are on the total.

Game 1 closed with an Over/Under number of 222.5 points and didn’t stand a chance with both teams shooting 55% from the floor, including a sound collective clip of 26-for-56 from beyond the arc. The Lakers and Nuggets buried the total below a combined 258 points, and that has the Game 2 O/U a tick higher.

The Game 2 number opened at 225.5 points, and has since climbed to as high as 227.5 at some books.

Tuesday’s opening contest posted a pace rating of 97.5, which is pretty much on brand for the Nuggets, and a touch slower for the Lakers when measured up against their average tempo in the conference semifinals.

The first half of Game 1 was played at a frenetic pace rating of 102.0 (for a total of 126 points), while the final two quarters hit the brakes, dropping the pace to just 93.0 (total of 132 points) with L.A. bringing in bigger bodies. But with both teams shooting the lights out, the Under was wrecked midway through the fourth quarter.

Considering the defensive success of that late-game lineup, Game 2 could see a downshift in pace that mirrors the final 24 minutes of Tuesday’s outing. Points likely won’t come as freely, as Los Angeles will hit the defensive glass hard, and regression should set in for those shooting percentages.