Lakers vs. Warriors odds, props, predictions: LeBron out for matchup of playoff bubble teams
The last of Thursday's 12-game NBA slate pits teams that would play an elimination game to open the Western Conference play-in round if the regular season ended today. Neither the Lakers or Warriors have had the type of seasons they expected to enjoy to this point, and frustration has bubbled over for both teams over the past few months.
Both of these teams have experienced enough success over the years in going deep into the playoffs and winning championships that they know there is still time to flip the switch and start playing their best basketball through May and June to rescue their seasons. It just has to start now.
Unfortunately for the Lakers (30-26 SU, 26-30 ATS), they won’t have LeBron James in the lineup on Thursday since he’s sitting out due to left ankle pain. The problem isn’t expected to linger long and he may be able to play as early as Friday against San Antonio, but his absence means L.A. will have to rely on Anthony Davis to lead the charge in San Francisco as it looks to win a fourth straight game and move to 7-1 over their last eight.
The Warriors (27-26, 28-24-1) were also surging prior to All-Star, climbing back above .500 and into the West playoff picture by winning eight of 10. They’ve played fewer games than every team due to the postponements that occurred following the tragic death of assistant coach Dejan Milojevic last month, so they’ll have a few more opportunities for wins as they look to move up in the standings.
Handicapping Lakers vs. Warriors betting odds, props, and predictions requires projecting which team will be able to pick up where they left off after a week off.
Lakers vs. Warriors odds: Point spread, moneyline, total
Here are the latest NBA betting odds for Los Angeles vs. Golden State:
They’ve only played once thus far, playing a 145-144 instant classic won by Los Angeles at Chase Center on Jan. 27. The Lakers won their fourth in a row in the series in double overtime behind 36 points, 20 rebounds and 12 assists from James, overcoming a 46-point night from Stephen Curry.
Both teams had most of their key pieces in place outside of Golden State’s Chris Paul and L.A.’s Cam Reddish.
Lakers betting news: Trying season continues with numerous rotation pieces sidelined
James’ ankle tendinopathy has been a lingering issue, but he played 13:48 in the All-Star Game, starting and pitching in eight points. That makes it likely that this isn’t going to sideline him long, but they’ll now have to replace his production for at least a night through Davis, Rui Hachimura and Taurean Prince, who had been moved out of the starting lineup. Hachimura scored 36 points with LeBron out of the lineup prior to the break in a win in Utah, while Davis led the way with 37 points and 15 rebounds. Those types of efforts will be necessary here.
Jarred Vanderbilt, the Lakers’ top wing defender who was a plus-30 off the bench in the first meeting against Golden State in finishing with 14 points and nine rebounds, will also be absent due to a foot sprain.
Backup center Christian Wood is also out with left knee effusion, so Reddish and shooter Max Christie will probably be both in head coach Darvin Ham’s rotation if they’re able to return from ankle sprains. Center Jaxson Hayes is almost certain to receive minutes in helping spell Davis with Wood out.
D’Angelo Russell scored 28 points and hit five 3-pointers in the first matchup with the Warriors and will now be the primary ball handler on the perimeter with James sidelined. That means he’ll have to be more aggressive, avoid turnovers and find a rhythm that can help carry the Lakers for stretches.
To his credit, he’s been incredibly productive in 2024 after slumping and landing on the trade block in the season’s first few months. He had a 17-assist game on Valentine’s Day in Utah. Prior to that, he had a three-game stretch where he made 15 3-pointers and averaged 26.3 points. He’ll be essential to pulling off an upset here in a backcourt alongside Austin Reaves.
One player who wasn’t involved in the first meeting between the Lakers and Warriors is guard Spencer Dinwiddie, who should be an x-factor off the bench. He’ll be playing just his third game since joining his hometown team and has been thrown into the fire immediately, averaging 8.0 points and 5.5 assists in 29.5 minutes off the bench. Expect him to also see a substantial role.
Warriors betting news: Splash Brothers separated as a starting backcourt
Utah was also Golden State’s last opponent prior to the break, and it gave the Warriors a significantly tougher time than it did the LeBron-less Lakers, nearly rallying from a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter and losing only 140-137. The big news from that game is that Klay Thompson played a sixth man role for the first time in his career, coming off the bench for the first time since his rookie season (2011-12). Rookie Brandin Podziemski started.
That may be the latest sign that Thompson’s days in Golden State are numbered since he didn’t receive a contract extension and could test free agency this summer. However, Thompson responded extremely well in his new role against the Jazz, leading the Dubs in scoring with 35 points, knocking down seven 3-pointers and adding six rebounds. Head coach Steve Kerr said he’s looking forward to seeing Thompson paired with Paul off the pine when the former All-Star point guard returns at some point over the next few weeks.
Podziemski offers boundless energy and is a facilitator, finishing with 13 points, six rebounds and eight assists in Utah. Curry shot just 4-for-14 and Draymond Green uncharacteristically was the top scorer among the first five, finishing with 23 points.
Between Curry’s surge – he’s scored 30 or more points in seven of the last 12 games, including a 60-point outburst – Green’s exceptional play since returning from suspension, and Jonathan Kuminga producing at the highest level of his young career by being more efficient and assertive, Golden State has been tremendous lately.
One final boost the Warriors can get that would push them to the highest level in addition to Thompson flourishing as a sixth man is Andrew Wiggins regaining his mojo. The key to the team’s most recent title has matched a season-best by scoring in double-figures in six straight games and has shot 8-for-13 from 3-point range over the last three games. He’ll get more touches with Thompson now a reserve and must remain productive coming out of the break.
Lakers vs. Warriors player prop picks
Although he’ll have to deal with the defense of the pesky Gary Payton II for at least some of this game, Russell’s points prop of 19.5 (-120) is one you should bet OVER. He’ll have the ball in his hands quite a bit tonight and despite his massive assist game in Utah last Wednesday, is at his best when hunting shots.
Hachimura’s points total (16.5, -105) may be a little high, but he usually produces in the LeBron role since he has been the King’s apprentice since arriving in L.A. He’ll be asked to be aggressive and scored 36 prior to the break in James’ absence. He should get at least half that.
On the Warriors’ side, Draymond Green going OVER assists remains a go-to play here. Even as he scored more than he usually does last Thursday, he still had five dimes, and I see him finishing with at least eight in this one so long as he stays out of foul trouble.
Lakers vs. Warriors ATS prediction
Not having James is a big blow, but the Lakers should still be competitive enough for this to be high-scoring. For one, James often milks the shot clock in isolation. Two, L.A. will likely have to employ more small ball, potentially putting Russell, Reaves and Dinwiddie on the floor at the same time. That guarantees some defensive lapses and matchup problems Golden State will seek out.
The Warriors have scored 127 or more points in five of the last six games, and the reason Kerr is employing Thompson off the bench is to get better synergy from his first five while adding a potent go-to scorer to his second unit. We won’t see nearly 290 points because he’s unlikely to get multiple overtimes, but I think we’ll see the high side prevail since a lot of these guys will look rejuvenated after the break.
