League Cup Odds, Free Picks & Betting Tips

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17 August 2023

League Cup Odds, Free Picks & Betting Tips

Lionel Messi has come as advertised and is on the cusp of leading Inter Miami to a Leagues Cup championship less than a month after his arrival. Our betting picks aren't shying away from the GOAT to find the back of the net once again.

The first-ever Leagues Cup champion will be crowned on Saturday night when MLS sides Nashville SC and Inter Miami face off at GEODIS Park.

The final sees Liga MX completely locked out after Nashville defeated Monterrey 2-0 on Tuesday night. Hany Mukhtar helped spur the win with an assist after VAR took away a goal, and Walker Zimmerman helped secure a clean sheet.

The match marks the first final appearance of any kind in club history for Inter Miami, and they hope that Lionel Messi and Sergio Busquets will be leading them to at least another final this season. But lifting a trophy is priority number one, and Messi has a chance to stamp his name on the franchise less than a month after joining.

Will the greatest player of his generation lead Inter Miami to new heights, or will the proverbial fat lady be singing in the Music City? We discuss that and more in our Nashville SC vs Inter Miami picks and predictions for Saturday, August 19.

Nashville SC vs Inter Miami best odds

Nashville SC vs Inter Miami picks and predictions

Let’s just get this out of the way. We’re betting on Lionel Messi to score a goal.

It’s a cup final. And in his club career, Messi has played in 32 finals, including the World Cup, Champions League, La Liga, and many others.

In those 32 finals, his team has won 24 times. He’s scored a total of 32 goals over those matches, in addition to assisting 13 others.

Messi tends to be at his best when the spotlight shines the brightest. And since his arrival at Inter Miami, the spotlight of the American soccer world has been squarely fixed on him.

He’s delivered every step of the way. Starting with his match-winning goal on what was essentially the final kick of his debut against Cruz Azul, he’s found a way to score in each match that he’s donned a Miami shirt.

On Tuesday night against the Philadelphia Union, he doubled Miami’s lead 20 minutes into the fixture with a low-driven shot from about 30 yards out, beating one of the top keepers in MLS with what seemed to be relative ease.

Shots from that distance — hit that slowly — have no business going in. And yet it did. Because it’s Messi, and it feels like everything he touches for Miami right now turns to gold.

But it’s not gold up for offer on Saturday night, it’s silver. And the silverware Inter Miami wants won’t be won without the greatest of all time once again putting them on his shoulders.

Much like Philadelphia, the defense Nashville presents — on paper at least — is quite formidable. But the Union defense wilted under the pressure, despite playing at home. They sat back and played passively, and Messi and friends tore them apart. By the time they changed up the formation and tactics, it was far too late.

While Nashville’s likely going to learn from those mistakes, they were fortunate to keep a clean sheet against Monterrey. They needed multiple key saves from keeper Elliot Panicco to preserve their one-goal advantage in the second half, and Monterrey were wasteful of a few opportunities as well.

Messi doesn’t waste those chances. Miami had four shots on goal on Tuesday night, and they scored on all four. Their xG for the match was less than a full tally, and that mattered little.

Messi’s capable of scoring anytime, from nearly anywhere. Some books already have him priced at -200 or more to score.

Thankfully, both bet365 and DraftKings have him still at -125. That’s not going to last, so get your bet in now and enjoy the closing line value on the most probable win of the night.

My best bet: Lionel Messi to score anytime (-125 at bet365)

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Nashville SC vs Inter Miami Same-Game Parlay

Lionel Messi to score anytime (-125)

Hany Mukhtar Over 1.5 shots on target (+100)

Both teams to score — Yes (-200)

Inter Miami to lift the trophy (-200)

Our same-game parlay taps on a bit of star power and plenty of fireworks as we look to help you secure a solid payday.

Mukhtar is the key to everything Nashville does. He should’ve had the opening goal against Monterrey with a brilliant free kick, but VAR unjustly ruled that another player impacted play from an offside position.

Mukhtar takes the free kicks and penalties for Nashville, and he put two efforts on goal against Monterrey. This comes after a 5-0 win over Minnesota that saw him put two of six attempts on goal while scoring once and assisting three others.

In six matches in the tournament, he’s put at least one shot on goal in five matches, and two or more in three. Miami’s porous defense and turnover issues should give him plenty of chances to replicate that number here.

It’s also going to allow both teams to score. Nashville were fortunate to keep a clean sheet against Monterrey, and they’ve managed just two in the six matches in the tournament. Miami have conceded numerous scoring chances in this competition, and have also kept only two clean sheets.

And at the end of the day, I expect Inter Miami to lift the cup. Messi’s done something to this team to elevate the play of everyone around him, but more importantly, has made them believe they can do almost anything. It may require him putting them on his back, but he’s going to hoist the trophy at the end of the night.

Nashville SC vs Inter Miami Side and Over/Under analysis

The 3-way line quickly changed after Inter Miami opened at +125 to win in regulation. They’re now -105 or shorter, with Nashville paying +250 and the draw getting +300.

Nashville have lost just once in this tournament, a 4-3 group-stage defeat at home to Toluca. They defeated FC Cincinnati in penalties following a 1-1 draw and did the same after a 2-2 draw with Club America.

Inter Miami have won five of their six competition outings in regulation, needing two late goals and then penalties to defeat FC Dallas following a 4-4 stalemate. Messi has settled in easily, and the addition of Jordi Alba has made them even more dangerous. It’s why the money rolled in on them early.

I’m not going to pick against Miami, but the draw is intriguing. Philadelphia outperformed Miami in nearly every metric but lost easily. Miami finished their chances and Philadelphia didn’t. More importantly, Philly dropped off and played scared. Nashville will put pressure on Messi and Busquets. I could easily see this going to penalties.

As for the Total, it’s once again juiced to the Over. As has been the case with most matches lately for Inter Miami, you’re going to need to go for Over 3.5 goals or hit the Asian totals to find value. The Over 2.5 is priced at -175, while the Over for 3.5 is at +143.

That said, this is a tricky one. Philadelphia played into Miami’s hands and that led to an Over 3.5 cash. But Nashville will not sit back the way they did. They’re going to be physical with Messi, much like Orlando was, and it got under his skin. It also led to a 3-1 Miami win, but Orlando’s defense isn’t as good as Nashville’s.

For that reason, I’m staying away. I could see this being a 2-1 final and at the current juice, it’s not worth the risk.