Leicester City vs. Everton odds, prediction: Back the Foxes in an EPL relegation 6-pointer
It’s a massive fixture in the scope of the Premier League relegation race as we’re set to share our Leicester City vs. Everton prediction.
As it stands, Leicester City sit 18th in the English top flight. The Foxes have 29 points through 33 games and would vault to 16th in the league if they bag all three points on Monday.
Meanwhile, Everton sit only a point behind in 19th having also played 33 games. A win for manager Sean Dyche would see the Toffees escape the relegation zone, but they would only be one point clear of the drop.
Leicester City is a +100 favorite on the three-way moneyline with Everton priced at +275 and the tie priced at +240. The total is set at 2.5 goals, juiced -120 to the under.
LEAN Leicester City Moneyline (+100)
The only qualifier to add is to wait until lineups drop before betting this. Although I’m not expecting any shenanigans from Leicester manager Dean Smith, ensure James Maddison and Harvey Barnes are in the lineup before betting.
That said, Leicester thoroughly dominated the reverse fixture at Goodison Park and should produce a similar result on Monday. According to fotmob.com, Leicester won the expected goals battle 2.36 to 1.24 and the big scoring chances battle 3-2.
They also proved very efficient in terms of generating shots in dangerous areas. For that match, Leicester took 15 of their 22 shots from inside the penalty area and slightly improved upon their shot distance metric — their average shot distance for that match was 17.5 yards vs. 17.6 yards for the season, per fbref.com.
Under new manager Smith, Leicester is demonstrating a radical shift in form. Over their past five halves, the Foxes own a +3.23 non-penalty expected goal differential, per fotmob.com.
Even if you include a dismal first half at Manchester City, Leicester still owns a +1.55 npxG differential.
Now, Leicester gets a shot at Everton at home, where they’ve played much better this season. Across the entire campaign, the 2015-16 EPL champions are 0.19 xG per 90 minutes better.
On the flip-side, Everton have played horribly away from home over the last two seasons. This year, the Toffees have managed only a single win away from Goodison Park and have achieved a result in half of their 16 road fixtures.
Extend the sample back to last season and bettors will find Everton are 3-11-21 (W-D-L) away from home in those 35 games.
While it can’t be ignored Dyche has this side playing better, it’s difficult to see a scenario where the Everton defense does enough to earn points.
Given a draw helps neither side, take the side more likely to secure an outright win: Leicester City.
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