Lightning prediction, pick, how to watch
The Tampa Bay Lightning get ready for their next playoff push as they host the Toronto Maple Leafs. It’s time to continue our NHL odds series with a Maple Leafs-Lightning prediction, pick, and how to watch.
It is a first-round preview tonight in Tampa Bay. The Toronto Maple Leafs have locked in the two-seed in the Atlantic Division and will be hosting the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round. They have to be excited to be getting home ice in the first round, as they are 27-8-6 at home this year, which is third-best in the NHL. The two teams in front of them were the Boston Bruins and this Lightning squad. The Lightning are hoping to get in playoff form, as they are below .500 away from home and need to get going if they want to repeat beating Toronto in the playoff again.
Here are the Maple Leafs-Lightning NHL odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NHL Odds: Maple Leafs-Lightning Odds
Toronto Maple Leafs: +1.5 (-184)
Tampa Bay Lightning: -1.5 (+152)
Over: 6.5 (-110)
Under: 6.5 (-110)
How To Watch Maple Leafs vs. Lightning
TV: ESPN
Stream: NHLPP/ESPN+
Time: 7:00 PM ET/ 4:00 PMPT
*Watch NHL games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Maple Leafs Could Cover The Spread
Toronto has not been very consistent as of last. Before beating the Panthers 2-1, they had alternated wins and losses throughout 11 games. In the wins, the formula has been simple. They are getting plenty of shots on goal, getting quality goaltending, and controlling the puck. In the losses, they did not control the puck, goaltending suffered, and while they were shooting, they were not getting quality chances at the net. The biggest indicator of this up-and-down nature has been team Corsi percentage, which measures puck possession, shots on the net, and quality shots, among other key indicators. A normal range is 45-55% for a team, but Toronto has been over 55% six times in their last 12 games. They have won five of those. In the other six games, they were below 55%, losing four, and sitting below 45% in three of them.
Auston Matthews is still scoring for Toronto. He has eight goals in his last ten games, plus six assists. when he has scored, the team is 4-2, but just 2-2 when he has failed to tally a goal. John Tavares is also lighting the lamp for Toronto. He has scored three goals in the last two games and six goals in the last ten. Similarly, when he scores the team is 3-1. When both players score, the team is 2-0, and when Tavares scores with a Matthews assist, the team is 3-0. The correlation is easy, those two put up points, and the Maple Leafs win.
They will start Ilya Samsonov again in goal today. That is because Matt Murray, who has been playing well, is still out with an injury. Samsonov is coming off two solid games, and having a solid month. His last two games have seen save percentages over .950, and his April total is at .959, with one shutout. His one bad performance of the month was when he replaced Murray due to injury in the 5-2 loss to the Red Wings. If he starts as he has in his last four, the Maple Leafs will have a chance.
Why The Lightning Could Cover The Spread
The Lightning does not look like they are ready for the playoffs, as shown by their last three games. They have lost all three, and given up 19 goals in the process. The good news is all three were away from home, and they are a much better home team. They have won their last two home games by a combined score of 10-1. Their recent 3-7 slump has seen them play away from home in seven of the last ten games. In those games, they have been playing horrible defense. They have allowed more than thirty shots in each of their last nine, and 35 or more shots in each of their last four.
Andrei Vasilevskiy has been playing more sparingly since the Lightning were locked into their playoff position, but his last outing saw him give up six goals on 37 shots. That is the third time this season he has let in six goals, and ties for the most he has let in all year. In the prior two, his next start was a win, including one shutout, and only allowing two goals on 35 shots in the other. If Vasilevskiy bounces back as he has done in the prior two, they will be in line for another victory tonight.
Final Maple Leafs-Lightning Prediction & Pick
Do not expect to see anything crazy tonight. The playoffs start next Monday and these two teams will be playing each other. The home team has won both of the first two games of the series. If anyone has any nicks or bruises that their team wants to get healed up, expect them to sit or have limited minutes in this game. This game is all about getting out healthy and preparing for the playoffs. Expect a low-scoring, tight game.
Final Maple Leafs-Lightning Prediction & Pick: Toronot +1.5 (-184) and Under 6.5 (-110)
