Lillard trade effect on Blazers, Heat, & Suns odds: Is Phoenix the real trade winner?
It has been a major story all off-season. Damian Lillard requested a trade in early July, but it did not happen overnight. The deal took some time to come together, and the Bucks being the team to end up with Lillard is a bit of a surprise.
The noise all off-season was Lillard to the Heat, but Miami was unwilling to give enough up to acquire the All-Star guard, or at least not as much as Milwaukee. After the trade, we will cover the trade details and look at the over/under win total odds and NBA championship odds for the Blazers, Heat, and Suns.
3-Team trade details between Bucks, Suns, & Trailblazers
Here is what each team is receiving in the trade:
Milwaukee Bucks receive:
- Damian Lillard
Phoenix Suns receive:
- Jusuf Nurkic
- Grayson Allen
- Nasir Little
- Keon Johnson
Portland Trailblazers receive:
- Jrue Holiday
- Deandre Ayton
- Toumani Camara
- Milwakuee's 2029 1st round pick
- Unprotected1st round pick swaps in 2028 & 2030
Effect on Heat, Suns, & Trailblazers regular season win totals
We look at three teams' odds on their season win total over/under lines due to the trade. Due to the trade, we are looking at the Heat, Suns, and Trailblazers. In another article on the Milwaukee Bucks over/under win total, we go into greater detail about the trade of effect.
Miami Heat over/under win total odds
Total on Sept. 21: 48.5 wins (-110) at most major sportsbooks
Total today: 46.5 wins, best value over +104 at FanDuel and best value under -120 at BetMGM
You may wonder why we are mentioning the Miami Heat in this article. The Heat were not involved in this trade, but the thing is, since the day Damian Lillard requested a trade, the Heat seemed like the most likely destination. Looking at the Heats season win total odds pre and post-trade, sportsbooks have dropped the Heats win total line.
It makes sense that sportsbooks were likely giving themselves some cushion in the event that the Heat acquired Lillard. Now that the Heat are definitely not getting Lillard, their total wins are easier to set.
Phoenix Suns
Total on Sept. 21: 52.5 wins (-110) at most major sportsbooks
Total today: 53.5 wins, best value over -110 at FanDuel and 51.5 wins, best value under +100 at BetMGM
The real winner in this trade really might be the Phoenix Suns. No, they did not get the best player in the trade, which is typically the winner of most trades. The Suns, though, got quite a bit in this trade for what they had to give up.
Phoenix gave up Deandre Ayton and Toumani Camara while receiving Jusuf Nurkic, Nassir Little, Keon Johnson, and Grayson Allen. Losing Ayton may hurt three years from now, but it gives the Suns much-needed cap flexibility, as it seemed Phoenix regretted Ayton's max deal the moment they signed it.
Portland Trailblazers
Total on Sept. 21: Unavailable
Total today: 29.5 wins, best value over -115 at FanDuel and best value under -105 at FanDuel
Most legal US sportsbooks declined to give a win total line prior to the trade. It makes sense as if the trade had not happened until a few weeks into the season or even longer; Lillard would have definitely helped Portland win more games, even if it wouldn't have meant much for their season-long or championship hopes.
Effect on Heat, Suns, & Trailblazers NBA championship odds
The trade had a similar effect on each team's NBA Championship odds as it did on their season win total odds. We also have a deeper look at the Milwaukee Bucks NBA championship odds in a separate article.
Miami Heat over/under win total odds
NBA championship odds mid-June: +1800 at most major sportsbooks
NBA championship odds today: +2200 Caesars, +2500 FanDuel, +3000 BetMGM
As mentioned, just like their win total lines and odds, the Heat not acquiring Lillard has hurt their likelihood of winning an NBA championship. Some sportsbook have dropped their odds by over +1000, with the highest value odds currently +3000 at BetMGM sportsbook.
It remains to be seen, though, as now that Lillard is not coming to town, does Miami pivot and go seek a different deal, find another star player to pair with Jimmy Butler, or do the heat stay pat?
Phoenix Suns
NBA championship odds mid-June: +850 at most major sportsbooks
NBA championship odds today: +550 at FanDuel and Caesars, +650 at BetMGM
While some are knocking the Suns for getting rid of Ayton, that is more of a long-term thing. The sportsbooks agree that, at least for this season, this deal helps Phoenix's NBA championship odds. Earlier this summer, odds were floating in the +800 to +1000 range, and now sportsbook odds for Phoenix to win it all are in the +550 to +650 range.
The Suns now sit at the 4th best odds of any team to win the NBA championship this season. Surrounding Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal with more potential 3&D players like Grayson Allen and Keon Johnson is always a plus. A flexible player like Nassir Little allows Phoenix to put lineups out where he can guard either a wing or power forward, leaving Durant with whatever is the easier matchup to preserve his energy.
While Jusuf Nurkic can still provide a legit center with great size when Phoenix wants to go with bigger lineups, Nurkic is also a three-point threat, shooting 36.1% from three, and made a career-high 43 last season, giving Phoenix better floor spacing options than they had with Ayton, who had never hit more than seven three's in a single season. Nurkic will at least be an option to leave on the floor in playoff games, whereas Ayton was often on the bench during crunch time as he killed floor spacing.
Portland Trailblazers
NBA championship odds mid-June: +25000 at most major sportsbooks
NBA championship odds today: +25000 at Caesars and BetMGM, +50000 at FanDuel
The Trailblazers weren't winning a championship before the trade and still won't after. They will be a fun team with a very exciting young guard combo in Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson. With Deandre Ayton also giving the Trailblazers a centerpiece in the frontcourt, don't be surprised when Portland is a contender three seasons from now.
While this trade may hurt the Trailblazer, management made a wise decision that should help the franchise long term.
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