Line Calls, presented by FanDuel Sportsbook: Holger Rune vs. Jannik Sinner, Nitto ATP Finals

Sinner is coming off the biggest win in his career, but he has never beat Rune—who also has a lot to play for.

Jannik Sinner is coming off one of the biggest wins of his career, a 7-5, 6-7 (5), 7-6 (2) victory over world No. 1 Novak Djokovic in round-robin play at the Nitto ATP Finals. Sinner had never beaten Djokovic before, but he came out and took it to the 24-time Grand Slam Champion, beating him at his own game. Djokovic is known as the best tiebreaker player in the world, but Sinner outlasted him in the deciding one in front of a raucous Italian crowd. Now, Sinner will look to beat Holger Rune and move to 3-0 in group play. And while I do think the Italian has a shot at doing so, I like Rune’s chances of winning at least one set.

Rune had some serious struggles towards the end of the summer, and he almost jeopardized his spot in this event. But he was able to find his game in the weeks leading up to Turin, and two close losses to Djokovic—at the Paris Masters and the ATP Finals—showed the world that he is back to playing at an elite level. Rune could have easily come away with wins in both of those matches had he played some points differently, but that’s neither here nor there. The important thing is that he’s back to looking like one of the top players in the game, and he has always measured up well against Sinner.

These two have met just twice in their careers: Rune advancing 5-7, 6-4, 5-2 (walkover) in Sofia last year, and 1-6, 7-5, 7-5 in Monte Carlo in April. Rune is going to enter this match with some real confidence, as he knows that he has what it takes to beat Sinner. It’s his incredible baseline game that gives Sinner trouble. The Italian is usually capable of wearing out opponents with his tremendous power from both sides of the court, but Rune is good at redirecting that pace and also playing some crazy angles.

It’s also hard to ignore that Sinner is in a prime letdown spot here. Beating Djokovic is something that people work their whole careers for, so Sinner might let his foot off the gas a bit here. But he can’t afford to do that against a player like Rune, who still has a shot at making it to the semifinals. We’re going to see a locked-in version of Rune here, and he’s also going to be well rested after having played only three total games against an injured Stefanos Tsitsipas on Tuesday.

All in all, I try never to get too high or low on anybody when deciding who to bet. I know that Sinner has taken his game to new heights in 2023, but I don’t think the difference between these two players is as big as the odds suggest. So, I’m backing Rune to make Sinner work for this. I also wouldn’t be shocked if he wins outright.

Line Call: Rune +1.5 Sets (-150) & Rune ML (+255 - 0.5 units)