Line Calls, presented by FanDuel Sportsbook: Sorana Cirstea vs. Petra Kvitova, Miami
Cirstea is 4-1 against Kvitova in hard-court matches, and will be confident she can pull off this upset.
In an unlikely Miami Open semifinal, Sorana Cirstea will look keep her impressive run going against two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova. Cirstea, ranked 74th in the world, is fresh off an 1:27 straight-set win over world No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka. Cirstea came out of the gates scorching hot and never looked back.
Cirstea now has a great shot at reaching the final, with an extra day to rest after having played her quarterfinal on Wednesday. On top of that, Kvitova also happened to play a tough three-set match against Ekaterina Alexandrova on Thursday. That match lasted over two hours, and Kvitova will have to quickly turn around and face an opponent that is filled with confidence right now. That’s why we’re backing the Romanian as a small underdog, but it's not the only reason.
Cirstea has had a lot of success against Kvitova in her career. Kvitova ended up earning a straight-set win when the two met in Cincinnati in 2022, but Cirstea has won their four other hard-court meetings. One of those victories came as recently as the 2022 Australian Open.
The Romanian also made it all the way to the quarterfinals at Indian Wells. She earned a win over Caroline Garcia in that event, and that’s a result that bodes well heading into this meeting. There are similarities between Garcia and Kvitova, with both women possessing booming serves and powerful groundstrokes. Kvitova is definitely a bit smoother than Garcia, and she has a higher court IQ. But Kvitova has to be a little worn down right now, and she seems due for a loss after the way she let Alexandrova hang around.
The key here is that Cirstea needs to keep serving the way she’s been. She has a hold percentage of 75.2% since the start of the 2023 season, but has never had a hold percentage of higher than 70.0% in her career. If she keeps that up, you’ll be very happy you took this bet. Our only suggestion here would be to play this one a little smaller than usual. This is more of a value play than anything else, so perhaps put a half of a unit on it.
Line Call: Cirstea To Win (+140 - 0.5 units)
