Liverpool told chances of Champions League finish after supercomputer Premier League prediction

After the 7-0 victory over Manchester United, it felt as if Liverpool would go on and stroll into the top four places. Then came the 1-0 defeat to Bournemouth and suddenly things might feel a little different for Reds fans.

The reality, however, in the chase for the Champions League spots, is that there are more twists and turns to come yet. Has Newcastle United really turned a corner? Will Spurs, who still have to come to Anfield, find some consistency?

It is only natural to think about things week by week, reacting to the latest results, but when all three of the sides chasing fourth place keep dropping points, things are going to keep on changing.

Manchester United in third might be a little way ahead of the chasing pack, but they dropped points against Southampton at Old Trafford on Sunday, and their hammering at Anfield shows they can fall apart when put under pressure.

Prediction site FiveThirtyEight has done the maths on the chances of each of the teams chasing the top four spots succeeding in their aim, with Liverpool rated as being behind both Tottenham and Newcastle in terms of the likelihood of coming fourth.

The supercomputer has crunched the numbers and predicted that the Reds are most likely to come sixth with 64 points. Tottenham and Newcastle, it thinks, will finish a point ahead despite having a considerably lower goal difference.

Manchester United is said to have a 73 per cent chance of finishing inside the top four spots, Spurs and Newcastle both have a 33 per cent chance, and Liverpool is given a 30 per cent chance. Below them, Brighton has a 25 per cent chance and Chelsea is given just a one per cent chance, which is lower than Brentford on two per cent.

Currently on 42 points, finishing on 64 points would mean Liverpool picking up 22 more points from its final 12 matches of the campaign, when it faces Manchester City, Chelsea, West Ham, Leicester and Southampton away from home and Arsenal, Nottingham Forest, Tottenham, Brentford and Aston Villa at Anfield.

Liverpool.com says: It seems very tight in the race for the top four, and the predictions reflect that. The match with Spurs at Anfield could prove pivotal and you would fancy Liverpool in that one with home advantage.

The trouble is that you cannot predict what version of the Reds will turn up most of the time at the moment. Any more poor performances like the one seen at Bournemouth on Saturday lunchtime and the percentage chance of coming fourth will quickly diminish even further.