Liverpool vs. Villarreal Champions League odds, prediction

Liverpool and Villarreal are playing in the second semifinal of the UEFA Champions League. The first leg takes place in Merseyside on Wednesday. Liverpool knocked out Benfica in quarterfinals, while Villareal upset Bayern Munich in quarters.

Liverpool has created 19.5 expected goals in 10 Champions League matches this year. The team has also created more than one expected goal in four of its games this calendar year, including against Benfica. Liverpool's defense has been effective, allowing the second-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes and second fewest expected shots.

Unai Emery's side is on a dream run in the Champions League. Villarreal is favored to beat Liverpool. The team has only kept one opponent under one expected goal in 10 games. It created at least one goal against in three of its last four matches. However, it has created only 1.75 big chances per match in last 4 matches, down from 2.5 chances in first six matches of the campaign.

Liverpool and Villarreal are playing Champions League match. Gerard Moreno is injured and he won't play for Villareal. Liverpool has played its fourth game in the last 11 days and its eighth match in April. Villarreal has scored six goals on 3.4 expected goals in its last two EPL fixtures.