Long Distance Hurdle Tips: A Rock Solid Favourite

horseracing.net

29 November 2023

Long Distance Hurdle Tips: A Rock Solid Favourite

The Long Distance Hurdle is the highlight of Friday's supporting card at Newbury which acts as a wonderful appetiser for the Coral Gold Cup on Saturday. This year just six will line up and checking the odds it looks to be between three. Billy Grimshaw is on hand to give us his idea of the winner...

Maries Rock

Nico de BoinvilleNicky Henderson

Paisley Park

Tom BellamyEmma Lavelle

Dashel Drasher

Rex DingleJeremy Scott

Flight Deck

Chris WardDeborah Cole

Hugos New Horse

Harry CobdenPaul Nicholls

Mahons Glory

Sam Twiston-DaviesPatrick Neville

Odds correct as of 2023-11-29 15:21 Odds subject to change.

In 2022 Nicky Henderson sent Champ to this race and his charge duly obliged, and while the reigning champ Champ is not here to defend his title I do believe Seven Barrows will still be the stable celebrating come 15:15 on Friday. MARIE'S ROCK is not the most trustworthy sort, but she is very talented on her day. Last season connections could not decide whether to aim her at the Mares' Hurdle or Stayers', in the end plumping for the Mares' which resulted in a very disappointing seventh place. She may not have been able to live with the mighty Honeysuckle on her swansong that day, but finishing so far down the field was certainly not true to form.

The team must now believe she is a stayer through and through and her second in the Aintree Stayers' behind Cheltenham winner Sire Du Berlais was much more like it. She is of course a mare and they are notorious for bottoming out in ability or constitution early, but she is still just an eight-year-old and has a body of work behind her that means EVS in this race is probably a fair enough price. The main reason I will be backing her come Friday is her stunning win on reappearance last season in the Relkeel on New Year's Day. She travelled all over the field that day and romped to a six length success over the re-opposing Dashel Drasher.

Jeremy Scott's charge is an admirably consistent sort, and does have a weight swing in his favour over Marie's Rock since Aintree and Cheltenham last campaign, but he is now eleven and looked a bit below his best on his first run of this season. He is likely to provide the pace here, which will suit the favourite and of course 2019 champion Paisley Park. Emma Lavelle's stable star will no doubt hit flat spot after flat spot before, hopefully for his backers at least, staging a late rally, however he is well into the twilight of his career too and I worry the fire does not burn as bright as it once did.

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I would not like to be punting in a match bet between the two veterans as they have both shown they have the capability to beat the other depending on which woke up on the right side of the stable that day, but perhaps Paisley Park's record in this race will mean plenty are backing him. He went down to Champ last season by just a neck and if Dashel Drasher is at his front running best and Tom Bellamy can get a tune out of the horse perhaps he will come with a trademark late rattle. Then again, carrying 11st 8lbs while the favourite has just 11st 1lb is another stone to throw at Paisley Park's chances.

The suspicion however is that both horses are past their prime, and whichever way the race pans out I can see Marie's Rock travelling all over the rest of the field as she did on NYD 2023. Outside of the big three there are some younger horses who may have a say should they take a notable leap forward or the top trio fail to fire. Perhaps the most interesting is Hugos New Horse, who looked a fair animal last season and must still have some scope for improvement as a six year old. I couldn't in good faith support him, however, after his stinking run last time out at Cheltenham in which Harry Cobden lamented the way he jumped markedly to his left. Newbury is not the track to right that wrong.

In that race at Cheltenham in which Cobden's mount ran so poorly, a 66/1 outsider ran a career best and that was Flight Deck for Deborah Cole. He will take his chance here and if repeating that run would have a chance of minor honours, particularly if he takes another step forward for his new team following that stable debut. He shouldn't, however, be good enough to cope with a peak form Marie's Rock. Finally, the outsider of the field is Mahons Glory for Patrick Neville. This is an interesting entrant on stable debut after switching from Richard Newland, but he is best watched for now as the suspicion is he is using this for a handicap mark.

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