Longchamp Tips: Three selections in France on big ITV Racing weekend

horseracing.net

28 September 2023

Longchamp Tips: Three selections in France on big ITV Racing weekend

A huge weekend awaits flat racing fans around the globe at Longchamp, with the highlight of course being the race most famous in Europe the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. There is a decent supporting card of course across the Channel and as well as giving his updated verdict on the big race on Sunday, Billy Grimshaw has a tip in both the Prix du Cadran on Saturday and the Prix de l'Abbaye.

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Last year’s Prix du Cadran was of course dominated by the remarkable Kyprios, but sadly that 22 length winner of 2022 won’t return to defend his crown and will instead be aimed at Ascot on his path back to full fitness. Nevertheless, Ballydoyle have a decent representative for the marathon test in Emily Dickinson, who looks an out and out stayer these days. The worry with her is the same as with favourite Trueshan, the ground may be too quick for both.

With this duo taking up such a large chunk of the market, there could be value looking elsewhere and I’ll be having a small play on RUN FOR OSCAR win only. A dual purpose performer for Charles Byrnes, he has disappointed on very soft and soft in his recent runs, one coming behind the aforementioned Emily Dickinson.

Simply put this is a play purely taking on the top two due to their recent inconsistencies and their known liking for the mud to be flying. Without that advantage I think there is a fair chance both throw in a stinker, which would leave Run For Oscar as best of the rest. Skazino, Moon Wolf and Verte Liberte all have crossing formlines and the first named is probably the best of the bunch, but Byrnes’s raider can put them all to the sword.

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I was tasked with penning an antepost preview of the biggest flat race in Europe the Arc last week, and since eulogising over the claims of WESTOVER nothing has put me off the Juddmonte runner. Last season’s run can be excused on account of the wretched ground he faced and he looks a stronger more robust proposition this time around, so at 7/1 compared to 9/2 on offer about Hukum, who only beat him in a photo in the King George, he still looks solid each-way value.

Having a couple running for you in a race like this is never a bad thing however and I have begun to be swayed by the claims of this season’s Japanese representative THROUGH SEVEN SEAS. The filly is not in the class of some of the supreme horses that have tried and failed to win this race for Japan over the years, but she is tough and consistent and with the ground coming up on the better side she will enjoy Longchamp.

The big reason I think Westover is value is his 4 length defeat to wonder-horse Equinox in Dubai earlier this year, so considering Through Seven Seas was beaten just a neck by that same horse (admittedly he was given an almighty task by his rider) then the value argument must ring true again at upwards of 14/1.

Plenty in here have crossing form lines and the conclusion I’ve drawn from scanning through them is that on all known form, Highfield Princess has the beating of the majority of them at her best. The worry for favourite backers in here is that she has run average races the last two times and perhaps a long season is catching up with the admirable John Quinn filly.

She is the most likely winner still as this does not look a vintage Abbaye, however I’m prepared to chance ROGUE LIGHTNING to continue his upward trajectory since being gelded. He has run thrice since the snip and won all three, two in handicap company and one a listed race at Doncaster a few weeks ago.

These wins have come on a variety of different grounds and I’m of the opinion that this rapid sprint will really play to the strengths of his run style. Still only three he is less exposed than most in this field and will be able to come late and fly through the early leaders hopefully showing the serious change of gear he possesses to claim the Group 1 prize in an open five furlong division.

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