Loose Pass: What else to discuss but fly-halves as World Cup giants rocked
This week we will mostly be concerning ourselves with fly-halves, because the whole weekend was about fly-halves…
If it was already the hardest World Cup ever to call, it has now become one of the most susceptible to injury and/or unavailability. It has also become a tournament of new fly-halves.
Thinking through all of the past World Cups, there has nearly always been a dominant and bedded-in number 10 masterminding his team’s eventual victory. Grant Fox in 1987, Michael Lynagh in 1991, Joel Stransky in 1995 were all shoo-ins at the time. Stephen Larkham’s move from full-back to pivot in 1998 was widely perceived retrospectively to be the masterstroke of tactical selection that got Australia back on track en route to victory in 1999. Nobody English needs reminding about who the main man was in 2003. 2015 was Dan Carter’s tournament and 2019 was steered by the accuracy of the unfortunate Handre Pollard. Other established and fulcrum-like fly-halves were unlucky to miss out in them all as well: Rob Andrew in 1991, Dan Biggar and Owen Farrell in 2019, Andrew Mehrtens in 1995 and again in 1999, Frederic Michalak and Larkham in 2003.
The 2007 and 2011 tournaments are instructive for the forthcoming edition. In 2007, Butch James had only been in the South Africa squad for a year after a long hiatus due to both injury and form, while the catalogue of misfortune that befell New Zealand’s number 10 incumbents in 2011 culminated in Piri Weepu’s cameos, an interrupted fishing holiday and Stephen Donald’s entry into folklore. The fly-halves are not always everything, but in both those tournaments the winning teams had an edge on their opponents all over the pitch despite the closeness of the results. James and Donald were both experienced too, if not first-choice.
All Blacks strong at fly-half
New Zealand would be forgiven for a guilty feeling of schadenfreude this time around; with a warm-up looming against South Africa it can all still go wrong, but right now the All Blacks are the only team heading to the World Cup with two fully fit, played in and recognised top-level fly-halves.
Ireland? Johnny Sexton will have played one warm-up game, against Portugal’s second team, in the near-five months prior to the match against Romania. His understudies are able, but, in all senses of the word, a little green when it comes to such stages. Sexton is absolutely world class and maybe the enforced rest will rejuvenate the sinews, but there is an ongoing, well-founded, lurking suspicion that he might be underdone in terms of match-intensity preparation and just plain done physically. That Romania – thrashed by Georgia at the weekend – are first up is a blessing.
France? The horrible news that we will not be able to enjoy the indescribable talents of Romain Ntamack leaves France not only reeling, but also with Matthieu Jalibert needing to step up. A fine player he is and he’s long been one to keep pressure on Ntamack, but there is a suspicion that he is not as good in defence and can go missing in big games, not to mention an over-enthusiasm to tear up the script at the wrong moment. Antoine Hastoy is good too and has come on in leaps and bounds under Ronan O’Gara’s tutelage (and he swears a lot more now too). But in terms of experience, he’s green as well.
South Africa? Pollard is also out, Manie Libbok and Damian Willemse are a mixture of greenness and wildness and good though Faf de Klerk may be in a pinch, the experiment of putting a nine at 10 was tried in 2011 and doesn’t need repeating too much; it can work fine on the hoof, but as soon as the opposition knows it’s coming it’ll be quickly worked out, as poor Morgan Parra discovered in 2011.
England? Not that they are favourites at the moment by any stretch of the imagination, but the loss of Farrell – who really ought to be done for a good four or even six matches – leaves them either with Marcus Smith, whose vast talents and abilities are entirely at odds with his coach’s game-plan and team’s strengths, or George Ford – who might just emerge as a bolter if England can get the rest of their game together.
Australia? One fly-half in the squad who’s played four Tests, another who’s played two.
Wales? Biggar may yet enjoy an Indian summer under Warren Gatland, Sam Costelow is another potential bolter. But Wales are hardly setting the world alight at the moment.
Finn Russell key to Scotland
Scotland on the other hand, looking good across the park, also have a hero-in-waiting string-puller in Finn Russell, yet they’ve a horrible draw.
Argentina’s draw is much kinder, and their stocks of 10s have also remained happily injury-free, even if Nicolas Sanchez’s best days are now behind him. Santiago Carreras, like Russell, has a huge opportunity; Argentina’s horse is dark but looking increasingly frisky.
Past World Cups have often been about fly-halves and this one will likely be no different. After all, once you get to finals rugby, it’s the player who, with the help of his pack, can impose the best pressure on the opposition and steer his team to the right areas of the pitch, and whose vision is depended upon to exploit the few opportunities normally afforded. More often than not, it’s also he who kicks the crucial, scoreboard-ticking points. More often than not, we know who they are going to be. This year is a little different. There’s a clutch of fly-halves with a huge opportunity this year to leave an indelible mark where a year ago they’d have laughed in your face if you’d suggested it. Interesting times.
