Louisiana-Jacksonville St prediction: New Orleans Bowl picks

The 2023 college football bowl season begins with a handful of games on Saturday, including this year’s New Orleans Bowl between Jacksonville State and Louisiana. Kickoff is slated for 1:15 p.m. at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

Jacksonville State is looking to cap off a successful debut season at the FBS level with its first-ever bowl victory. The Gamecocks went 8-4 overall, including 6-2 in league play en route to a third-place finish in the Conference USA. They closed out their season with a 20-17 road loss to New Mexico State but still won three of their last five games.

Louisiana, meanwhile, has become a bowl game regular after earning its sixth consecutive postseason berth following a 6-6 campaign. The Ragin’ Cajuns dropped last year’s Independence Bowl, but had won three straight bowl games before that — a streak that included a victory in the 2021 New Orleans Bowl. They are hoping another favorable crowd can help them replicate that 36-21 victory over Marshall.

When it comes to bowl betting, a big part of the handicapping process comes down to motivation. That’s especially difficult to assess in this case, with Louisiana likely having a decent crowd in New Orleans compared to a Jacksonville State squad desperate to earn its first bowl victory.

In addition, both teams are closer to full strength than most other programs competing at this time due to opt-outs and the transfer portal. Jacksonville State will be missing its edge rusher Jaylen Swain, while Louisiana lost starting linebacker Kendre Grant to the transfer portal and starting left tackle Nathan Thomas to offseason surgery.

Caesars Sportsbook, the official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com, is giving Jacksonville State the edge in what should be a competitive matchup. Caesars lists the Gamecocks as 2.5-point favorites to go along with a total of 58.5.

Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends:

Jacksonville State vs. Louisiana

Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 16 at 1:15 p.m. (ESPN)

Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA

Point spread (from Caesars): Jacksonville State -2.5 (-115)

Over/under: 58.5

Moneyline: Jacksonville State -145, Louisiana +122

Analysis: This should be a good game, and exactly what we are hoping for when bowl season begins each year. Both teams want to win on Saturday and have more than enough pieces on both sides of the ball to prevail.

But there is a reason the market seems to be favoring the Gamecocks in this one. They are 8-3-1 against the spread, covering the number in four of the last five outings. Head coach Rich Rodriguez has leaned on his defense this season, as Jacksonville State has held every opponent except South Carolina below 18 points since mid-October.

That doesn’t bode well for a Louisiana team that faded a bit down the stretch, dropping three of its last four games while dealing with injuries at the quarterback position. In what should be a defensive battle, I’m siding with the Gamecocks (at anything under a field goal) to prevail for a storybook ending to their debut season at the FBS level.

Best bet: Jacksonville State -2.5 (-115 via Caesars)