Louisville vs USC Odds, Spread & Prediction
The Louisville Cardinals (10-3) and USC Trojans (7-5) will square off in the Holiday Bowl on December 27 at Petco Park in San Diego, California. Kickoff is set for 8:00pm ET on FOX.
Louisville comes in as a 7-point favorite, with the over/under set at 58.5 points. This Holiday Bowl marks the first encounter between USC and Louisville, adding a historic dimension to the game.
Let’s dive into the Louisville vs USC odds as we offer you our prediction for the 2023 Holiday Bowl.
Louisville vs USC Odds
In the 2023 Holiday Bowl odds, the Louisville Cardinals are favorites on the moneyline, meaning they have 72.9% implied win probability.
Louisville’s bowl history is evenly split, with this being their 12th appearance in 14 seasons. USC, with a richer bowl history, is playing their 57th game, with a decent record despite NCAA penalties affecting their statistics.
Odds as of December 24, 2023, at ESPN Bet. Use the promo code “DIME” to unlock a $250 bonus for the Holiday Bowl at ESPN Sportsbook.
Cardinals Betting Analysis
The Cardinals had a strong season under first-year head coach Jeff Brohm, going 10-3 overall and 7-1 in ACC play. However, they fell short in the ACC Championship game, losing to Florida State 16-6.
Louisville was ultimately one of the biggest surprises of the 2023 college football season, winning seven of its last eight games to end the regular season. Not many would have predicted during the offseason that they’d be favored over USC in a bowl game.
The Cardinals have a balanced offense led by QB Jack Plummer (3,063 yards, 22 TDs) and RB Jawhar Jordan (1,128 yards, 13 TDs). While Plummer will play against USC, the star running back Jordan is among the key Louisville bowl opt outs.
Defensively, Louisville allows just 19.7 points per game – 21st best in the FBS. While Jeff Brohm’s team was excellent against the run, they were still gashed for over 200 yards per game through the air.
Trojans Betting Analysis
At the season’s start, Southern California was a strong contender for the national championship, remaining undefeated through their first six games. However, the season took a turn for the worse.
USC limped to the finish line, losing four of its last five games, including a 38-20 defeat to UCLA in their season finale. The Trojans had no answer for the Bruins’ RB tandem of TJ Harden and Carson Steele, allowing them to combine for nearly 200 yards.
The Trojans have an explosive offense led by QB Caleb Williams (3,633 yards, 34 TDs) but really struggle on defense, giving up 34.9 points per game.
The team faces challenges with about 20 players, including 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Williams, opting out of the Holiday Bowl. Miller Moss, stepping in as quarterback, faces a tough Louisville defense led by standout Ashton Gillott.
Moss, with limited experience, remains confident in his and the team’s capabilities. The sophomore completed 72% of his passes for 309 yards and one touchdown in three appearances this season.
Louisville vs USC Prediction
This should be a high-scoring and entertaining matchup between two teams with contrasting styles. Louisville will look to control the clock with its ground game, while USC will be aggressive through the air.
Despite a poor performance against Florida State in the ACC Championship, Louisville’s offense is expected to improve, especially against USC’s weak defense. USC should also be able to put up points with Moss, who showed promise in games against San Jose State, Nevada, and Stanford.
In the end, the Cardinals’ balance on both sides of the ball gives them the edge to cover the 7-point spread in what could be a shootout that goes over the total of 58.5.
- Louisville -7 (-110)
- Over 58.5 (-110)
