Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ 2022 NHL Draft class gains momentum

The general rule for judging a draft class is five years. There are exceptions, like Connor McDavid. At the other end of the spectrum, Oilers fans are experiencing the results of a seven-year progression with Vincent Desharnais’ impressive first fewNHL games.

The Oilers’ 2022 haul is just over half a season post-draft and there are some good early signs. Here’s a look at the four picks and progress in 2022-23.

Reid Schaefer

His WHL season began with a searing performance over the first 10 games (13-3-16) and a less impressive rum (6-10-16 in 18 games) once the season settled in. Reid Schaefer played at the World Junior Championships for Canada, earning a gold medal over Christmas.

Schaefer’s comparable players from draft day were a wide ranging group. Has the first half of the WHL season narrowed the group? Here are the totals using points per game in each season.

Schaefer’s .54 goals per game is matched by Nolan Foote (.55) and the two men were the closest comparable players on draft day. Foote’s career in pro hockey is in Year 3, with 16 NHL games (4-2-6) and one trade (to the New Jersey Devils) on the resume.

Oilers fans are focused on Schaefer because his skill set (big, rugged winger with a quick release and a volume shooter) is a perfect fit for the organization’s needs.

Schaefer’s progress has him high on the organizational prospect rankings. Scott Wheeler at The Athletic has him No. 4 on his Oilers prospect list and offers some nuance in terms of why Schaefer’s numbers have leveled off after the fast start.

The big winger is on track as a prospect, but it’s difficult to properly project him as an Oilers winger should he arrive in the next couple of years. If he gets playing time with one of Edmonton’s elite centres, then the numbers could spike beyond what the WHL stats imply.

As an example, Kailer Yamamoto scored 39 goals in three seasons (160 games) beginning in 2019-20, but spent enormous minutes with Leon Draisaitl and McDavid. If Schaefer gets that kind of treatment, he too may average 20 goals per 82 games during portions of his Oilers career. The organization believes in him, and general manager Ken Holland is patient.

Samuel Jonsson

Tracking prospects is far easier than decades ago, but Europeans playing in lower leagues are still a mystery until they move up the depth chart and arrive in a famous league. For Samuel Jonsson, Edmonton’s fifth-round selection in 2022, the Swedish junior league (J20 Nationell) is a lower rung and there is little evidence statistically that points to future success.

His save percentage has improved year over year (.883 to .903) and Jonsson has two shutouts for Rogle this season. He is the team’s starter and is having success. He is facing 23.2 shots per 60 minutes this season, down from 24.6 one year ago. The reduction in shots against is a reflection of his playing on a better team this season.

Jonsson is a big goalie (6-foot-5, 201 pounds) and his scouting report suggests a raw talent with potential. Edmonton’s scouting staff took a late-round shot at a goalie whose size is compelling, hoping he could backfill the resume. This season shows progress and there’s plenty of time for him to develop.

NHL teams select goalies based on size all the time, passing on more impressive numbers. Here is a list of all draft-eligible goalies who played in the same league as Jonsson in 2021-22, with save percentage and size.

The Oilers aren’t the only team to emphasize size in net. The organization is hoping the big man will improve his mechanics, develop more quickness and avoid injury. Spending next season in a higher league would be a strong indicator of progress for Jonsson.

Nikita Yevseyev

The late-round pick with the most traction so far from the Oilers 2022 draft is Russian defenceman Nikita Yevseyev. He’s a KHL regular at 18 and has scored five goals in 44 games this season. Yevseyev is 6-foot-1, 187 pounds, is averaging 11 minutes a night and owns an even-strength goal differential of 19-12 (plus seven) in those 44 games.

The draft day scouting reports suggested offence would not be his calling card, so the five goals in 44 games (5-2-7 overall) may not reflect his real offensive ability.

Yevseyev is useful as a defender, owing to speed, quickness and good size (the Oilers claimed he was bigger than the vitals around the time of the draft). His mobility allows him to retrieve pucks and close gaps, two important features for modern defence.

Yevseyev fits the template Holland established with the drafting of Philip Broberg in 2019, and the subsequent selections of Luca Munzenberger and Max Wanner. Edmonton is selecting defenders with size and foot speed, players who bring suppression ability. It appears the era of drafting one-dimensional offensive defencemen may be over in Edmonton.

Yevseyev is tracking very well (Wheeler has him No. 9 on his list) but is likely two years away from North American ice time.

Joel Määttä

Joel Määttä’s draft day resume, and the half-season that has followed, might remind fans of the Oilers’ 2005 fourth-round selection Chris VandeVelde. Maatta brings size, two-way acumen and the ability to win faceoffs to the game.

He is another big forward (6-foot-2, 202 pounds) with the kind of skill set that could get him a job in pro hockey as a depth centre in the AHL. Sometimes that player lands an NHL job, in a specialized role. That’s the outer marker for Määttä, and he’ll need to spike offensively in his junior and senior seasons to land an NHL contract.

His coach is Todd Woodcroft, brother of Oilers head coach Jay Woodcroft. His teammate is Munzenberger and there’s a chance both Vermont Catamounts turn pro and begin their careers at that level with the Bakersfield Condors. It could happen this spring, but is more likely in 2024.

Bottom line

The Oilers under Holland are extremely patient, so there’s a chance the five-year plan will become the seven-year plan in this era of drafting.

The positives from the 2022 draft are Schaefer and Yevseyev, both young men showing handsome increases in production and on track as impressive prospects.

In the case of Jonsson, there’s time to develop and these are early days. The results delivered show progress, but the real step forward will come when he’s playing in a more competitive league. He is not yet dominating the J20 Nationell, and that’s a tell. The long game is likely on this player, it could be years before he sees North America.

Määttä is a player who lacks the offence required to project him as an NHL player. His underlying skills (PK, faceoffs) make him intriguing. He should get more playing time next season and we could see a spike in offence (VandeVelde saw it in Year 2). An AHL deal seems likely.

Four picks, with just one in the top 150, means it’s a victory for the organization to be talking about two men with a real chance to make it.

The downbeat? At some level, offence is a concern with all of these men. A betting man would suggest none of them will play the heart of their careers on an NHL skill line, and it’s possible just one will play a significant amount (say, more than 100 games) in the NHL.

Making the call on the 2022 draft is years in the distance. We can say there’s a story to tell, and two of those stories have enough promise to project pro contracts and time in the AHL, possibly NHL.

That’s a positive for such a small draft (just four players). A big second half by Schaefer wouldn’t go amiss.