LSU Football: Projected win totals for Tigers’ 2023 opponents

We’re less than two months away from the kickoff of the 2023 college football season.

LSU will begin against Florida State in Orlando — a rematch of last year’s opener with even more juice behind it this time with both programs having playoff aspirations.

That game is a reason LSU’s strength of schedule ranks among the nation’s best. Today, we’ll take a look at the projected win totals for all of LSU’s opponents in an attempt to get a read on the toughest games and what’s expected from LSU’s peers.

For each opponent, you’ll see a format like this: win total / over odds / under odds.

All lines are from BetMGM’s online sportsbook.

BetMGM Win Total: 9.5 / -145 / +120

ESPN FPI Projection: 8.7

Florida State is one of LSU’s toughest opponents. Only Alabama has a higher win total. And with the over at -145, the odds say it’s more likely FSU wins 10 games than nine.

FPI projects the Noles falling short of the total, but FPI is lower on FSU than a lot of projections.

Florida State should only be underdogs in two games this year, which includes the opener against LSU, where the Tigers are three-point favorites at the moment.

BetMGM Win Total: 6.5 / +115 / -135

ESPN FPI Projection: 6.3

The Bulldogs are transitioning coaches after the tragic passing of Mike Leach last December.

Defensive coordinator Zach Arnett was promoted to head coach and will get the benefit of returning a multiyear starter at quarterback in Will Rogers.

The offense will look different. MSU will move away from the pure air raid and establish a new identity.

This is a decent roster but the 6.5 total reflects a tough schedule in a year where there’s a lot of unknowns here.

BetMGM Win Total: 7 / +110 / -130

ESPN FPI Projection: 6.8

Expectations around Arkansas this year are mixed. Sam Pittman raised the Razorbacks well above the rock bottom they hit in the previous era, but progress has stagnated.

That may be fine. Arkansas continues to put respectable teams against tough schedules. It’s probably not fair to expect this program to compete for the SEC every year, but once in a while, fans want to be part of that race.

With K.J. Jefferson back for another year, Arkansas is well-positioned at QB. That could carry Pittman’s crew over the win total, but it’s a tough road ahead.

BetMGM Win Total: 7.5 / -125 / +105

ESPN FPI Projection: 7.6

FPI is aligned with the win total year as Ole Miss looks to continue its success under Lane Kiffin.

The Rebels crushed it in the transfer portal and improved at almost every position while returning star running back Quinshon Judkins.

Ole Miss surpassed 7.5 wins the last two years but this year’s schedule features a nonconference road game at Tulane and a cross-divisional draw with Georgia.

ESPN FPI Projection: 6

Eli Drinkwitz enters this year on a potential hot seat.

Missouri has a manageable nonconference schedule but draws LSU from the west. They lost top receiver Dominic Lovett to Georgia but should have another stout defense.

Drinkwitz is counting on receiver Luther Burden to emerge as one of the nation’s best and give this offense some life.

BetMGM Win Total: 7 / +120 / -145

ESPN FPI Projection: 5.8

Hugh Freeze returns to the SEC trying to rebuild Auburn.

The short Harsin era was messy on the plains but a transfer-heavy team hopes for a quick turnaround.

The QB situation remains a mystery but there are some good players here. Freeze is a proven offensive mind but even the best X’s and O’s can’t make up for a significant talent discrepancy.

Auburn needs some players to overperform this season to exceed seven wins.

BetMGM Win Total: 6 / -125 / +105

ESPN FPI Projection: 5.9

Jeff Monken has turned Army into a consistent service academy, but it’ll look a bit different this year. Army is moving away from the traditional triple-option.

By the time Army’ set to face LSU in October, the Tigers should have a good read on the new look offense.

Vegas expects this team to make a bowl based on that win total. This won’t be a Group of Five cupcake opponent.

BetMGM Win Total: 10.5 / +120 / -145

ESPN FPI Projection: 11.1

The 10.5 wins are the highest of any opponent on LSU’s schedule. As usual, Alabama is again the toughest game on LSU’s schedule.

At 10.5 wins, the Tide are the favorites in the west and one win ahead of LSU’s 9.5 mark.

BetMGM Win Total: 5.5 / -145 / +120

ESPN FPI Projection: 6.8

At 5.5, this is the lowest opponent win total among LSU’s Power Five opponents. But at -145, the odds suggest Florida’s got a good shot at a bowl.

There’s a lot we don’t know about this Florida team. Napier is still a year or two away from getting this roster to the talent level needed to compete in the SEC.

BetMGM Win Total: 5.5 / +125 / -150

ESPN FPI Projection: 6.1

Vegas isn’t high on Georgia State, giving the Panthers plus odds to become bowl eligible.

This is a hard schedule and a road game at LSU will be the toughest. The Panthers could be beat up by the time they arrive in Baton Rouge in late November.

BetMGM Win Total: 8.5 / +135 / -165

ESPN FPI Projection: 7.5

This is a decent win total at 8.5, but the +135 odds are relatively long. It reflects the uncertainty surrounding this program.

There’s no shortage of talent in College Station but it’s been disappointment after disappointment thus far into Jimbo Fisher’s tenure. Now, Bobby Petrino arrives in a attempt to jolt the offense but nobody knows how the Fisher/Petrino dynamic will play out.

Weigman should be Fisher’s best QB in his Texas A&M career. Will it be enough?